By David Williams

Former steel town Ebbw Vale is at the heart of Blaenau Gwent AM to stand as independent

Peter Law has agonised long and hard about whether to stand against his own party, but I understand that he has finally made up his mind.

It is a big decision for him, and for the Labour Party.

He will not officially declare until the expected announcement of a general election date by Downing Street.

But as far as he is concerned, that confirmation will be the starting gun for his own campaign against official Labour candidate Maggie Jones, a former chair of the party's National Executive Council.

There will be other candidates fighting the seat as well, but the main battle will be between Peter Law, who will fight it in the old-fashioned way, and Maggies Jones, Labour's choice for the seat

His stance is in protest at the imposition, by his own party, of an all-women shortlist to select a candidate to replace the current MP, Llew Smith, who is standing down after 13 years.

There has been considerable pressure on Mr Law to change his mind.

Last week Michael Foot, a former Labour leader and a former MP for the seat, appealed to him not to do it. It was another agonising moment and more pressure, but it was not enough to persuade him.

Peter Law complained his local party was forced to pick a woman

The effect will be both personal and on his party, but there is also the potential for more far-reaching consequences on the running of the assembly.

The first result is that he loses the Labour whip. That is crucial because Labour rules with a nominal majority of just one in Cardiff Bay, and that goes if Mr Law goes.

The opposition will then be in a position to gang up on Labour. Or put another way, that is a polite phrase for forming some kind of a coalition to defeat the ruling party.

Then there is the question of what the Labour Party does with Peter Law. To put it brutally, they will throw him out, but that may not happen until nominations for the general election close in a couple of weeks.

Blaenau Gwent result 2001 Labour: 22,855 (72%) Plaid Cymru: 3,542 (11.2%) Lib Dem: 2,945 (9.3%) Conservative: 2,383 (7.5%)

It promises to be a very bloody fight in Blaenau Gwent. There will be other candidates fighting the seat as well, but the main battle will be between Peter Law, who will fight it in the old-fashioned way, and Maggies Jones, Labour's choice for the seat.

Popular following

It will effectively transform the safest seat in Wales and the fifth safest in the country into a marginal.

Mr Law enjoys a huge popular following and he will hope that much of that transfers to him. But it may not be that simple and the Labour machine will fight hard to retain this seat for the party.

Labour has had a long time to prepare for this, and the party has been hoping up to the last minute that he would change his mind. I understand there has been considerable pressure - including personal inducements - but those have failed.

We can now expect a hugely significant electoral clash in a seat with something of a historical pedigree. It has been represented by not only Michael Foot, but also Aneurin Bevan, the founder of the National Health Service.

Even if Mr Law fights and loses, he still remains an assembly member. The opposition in the assembly may be counting on just that as the foundation for a coalition.

This is not just about Peter Law and the Labour Party.

It is about the possibility of capitalising on changing arithmetic to determine who really rules in Cardiff Bay.

It is as significant as that.