John Stevenson previews the Welsh Liberal Democrat conference

Charles Kennedy wants his party seen as the 'real' opposition

Neither does the Liberal Democrat leader really expect to dislodge Michael Howard as the leader of Her Majesty's loyal opposition.

Well... not this time at least.

He does though expect to improve even further on his party's spectacular success in the 2001 Westminster election and to make the gains at the expense of the Conservatives.

In February, the Lib Dems' the average poll rating was 19.8%: higher than it was at the start of the last general election campaign.

Charles Kennedy clearly saw a gap in the market for an anti-war party.... a deft strategy but clearly fraught with risk

Unfortunately for party members they hold their Welsh conference in Cardiff without their star guest. The protracted debate on the Prevention of Terrorism Bill forced their leader to stay in Parliament and abandon both a visit to one key seat - Ceredigion - and call off his speech in another - Cardiff Central.

But on the ground in Wales they have plenty to play for, and more than one Labour MP is getting jittery.

Among them Cardiff Central's Jon Owen Jones, who argues that Lib Dems have a particular appeal to serial killers and bee keepers.

The point he was trying to make was that as far he is concerned the Lib Dems appear unwilling to discuss their real policies or to discuss what they mean in practice.

Cardiff Central is at the top of Lib Dem Welsh hit list. They hold the seat in the Welsh assembly and the party did well at last year's council election.

Expecting: Charles and Sarah Kennedy's first baby is due in April

The Lib Dems hold the levers of council power in Cardiff, Swansea and Bridgend, and only this week Wrexham's Labour council leader resigned, to be replaced by a Lib Dem.

Earlier this month Mr Kennedy unveiled the party slogan for this election campaign: the real alternative. But alternative to whom and what?

Core support

Essentially he was telling Labour and the Tories "a plague on BOTH your houses" - and if you happen to be voting in Ceredigion, a plague on Plaid Cymru as well.

During this Parliament and particularly since Mr Howard became Tory leader, Mr Kennedy has sought to portray his party as the real opposition.

Critics say such a strategy lacks a central theme and that the party's election message varies from seat and from region to region

Amid Conservative support for the conflict in Iraq, Mr Kennedy clearly saw a gap in the market for an anti-war party. It's a deft strategy but clearly fraught with risk: the biggest of them being seen as a single issue party.

A real concern for Kennedy strategists must be how the Lib Dems can attract other parties' voters while keeping his core support on side.

How in a seat like Conwy will Lib Dems attract enough Tory voters to unseat Labour? Or in Ceredigion win over enough Labour votes to unseat Plaid Cymru?

Critics say such a strategy lacks a central theme and that the party's election message varies from seat and from region to region. In other words that they say different things to different people.

One answer to that is that people say that about every politician; that the business of politics is to say what they think people want to hear!

Speaking at his Harrogate conference, party chief executive Lord Rennard said the Lib Dem aim was for a better result than anything achieved in the last 95 years.

That means the election of 1910.

Curiously, though, that election saw an upsurge in Tory support in the Home Counties, and the south-east and west of England.

Even though the Liberals managed to stay in power, the Tories did manage to poll more than 300,000 more votes than them.