When the assembly reconvened in September, the first minister said that his government wanted "to do more than just survive the next 18 months".

Behind that statement lies a clear-eyed realism about the brutal mathematics that have changed the political dynamics in Cardiff Bay.

Those changes began after May's General Election.

Ex-Labour AM Peter Law stood and won Blaenau Gwent as an independent MP which led to his party expulsion.

But he's still an AM and now sits on the opposition benches. That means there are 31 opposition members compared to Labour's 29.

That puts Rhodri Morgan in an awkward position.

As the largest single party in the assembly, he firmly believes Labour has "a moral mandate" to continue to govern.

Independent Peter Law adding muscle to the opposition

He's also made clear that he doesn't think the opposition parties are in any fit state to work together as an alternative government.

But the reality he does understand is that Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, when they combine with the Independent AMs Peter Law and John Marek, can outvote the government. And because they can they will.

We first saw this unlikely coalition in action over university funding when they united to force the government into a commitment not to introduce student top-up fees.

And in recent weeks they've succesfully defeated the business statement (which sets out what's debated and when), taken the responsibility for setting up an inquiry into the e-coli outbreak from the government and perhaps most explosively, rejected next year's spending plans, demanding a number of changes to the draft budget.

Guerrilla attacks

This week they've stepped up the pressure by again rejecting the business plan until debates they want are included.

And in a second move they combined to order the merger of the Welsh Language Board into the assembly government be postponed.

The government says its legal advice is that the vote has no legal status. But the message from the opposition parties is clear: they intend to have their say in every area of assembly action and will flex their muscles to achieve that.

After the top-up fees defeat, there were private talks among the four leaders to hammer out a deal. I understand that a similar process has begun over the budget.

Under the cover of meetings about more arcane assembly matters, the leaders have already started on the road to a deal and will meet again next Wednesday.

The details will be worked out between the finance minister and the finance spokespeople, but the broad agreement will be arranged by the leaders.

It seems likely there'll be another issue the opposition parties can agree on next week and they have every intention of making their guerrilla attacks a weekly event.

They want the government to start involving them in decision-making. In turn ministers and backbench Labour AMs have lined up to accuse the other parties of posturing and irresponsibility.