The computer predicts Martin Johnson will lift the World Cup

The records, world rankings and fixtures of all the contenders for rugby's top prize have been entered into a computer by scientists at the University of Wales Institute, Cardiff (Uwic).

And the programme predicted that Martin Johnson's England would triumph over New Zealand in next month's final in Australia.

But it forecast Wales will only make the quarter-finals of the cup.

The computer simulated how different teams will perform in the World Cup and replayed different scenarios 2,000 times.

I wouldn't go as far as to say that the computer knows, but it's made a very good guess Scientist Peter O'Donoghue

England were the computer's clear favourite - winning 57% of the simulated tournaments.

New Zealand were next on 18%, France on 8%, with South Africa and Australia the next most likely winners according to the computer.

The computer programme is based on statistical patterns in the four previous Rugby World Cups.

Sports scientist Dr Peter O'Donoghue, from Uwic's Centre for Performance Analysis, said: "The first thing we did was look at the previous four World Cups and we found there are certain patterns that have emerged from those World Cups.

"We looked at how far teams have travelled to the competition.

"Secondly, we looked at the world rankings.

"And thirdly, we looked at the recovery period between matches - if a team has an extra two days between matches then that has been shown to have an effect."

'Good guess'

Mr O'Donoghue said he was confident the computer's prediction would be accurate after the machine successfully forecast that Brazil would lift 2002's football World Cup.

He added: "I wouldn't go as far as to say that the computer knows, but it's made a very good guess.

"Last year, the simulator picked Brazil, despite the favourites being Italy, Argentina and France.

"Unfortunately, it also predicted that Italy would be in the final with them, so I lost �20 down the local bookies.

"Rugby is a bit more predictable than soccer as there are far fewer upsets."

But Mr O'Donoghue admitted that a survey he had carried out with human beings had thrown up an entirely different prediction from the computer.

"We asked 42 individuals to make predictions and 21 of them are saying that New Zealand to win and 13 are saying England," he said. "I'm not sure if that's because we are in Wales, but they are disagreeing.