Rhodri Morgan said people assumed ten years of Labour power

Welsh First Minister Rhodri Morgan has appeared to concede that Labour could lose the next general election.

He also criticised the system which allows defeated candidates to be elected to the Welsh assembly by the "back door".

Mr Morgan was giving evidence to a group which is examining whether the assembly should get more powers.

He said the party had assumed it would be in power in Westminster and Cardiff for years to come, but it now risked losing power sooner.

People have been looking at the opinion polls First Minister Rhodri Morgan on Labour's prospects

Labour had envisaged a "five to 10-year" stint before losing office in Westminster or Cardiff, he said.

"But it could seem a bit sooner," he told the final public session of the Richard Commission, which is gathering evidence on the assembly's current and future working.

"People have been looking at the opinion polls," he added.

Fuel protests

Support for the Westminster Government has dropped to its lowest point since it came to power, except for a blip in 2000 over the fuel protests, according to opinion polls.

Lord Richard of Ammanford is heading the inquiry

The latest ICM survey showed Labour support had fallen by nearly a quarter since January 2002.

Cardiff West Labour MP Kevin Brennan said different parties in power at Westminster and Cardiff could prove "the making of devolution".

"The public in Wales, and even the political community, won't fully appreciate the value of the changes until there is a government of a different political hue in Westminster," he told the commission in Cardiff.

"At that point a lot of the criticisms of the assembly from certain quarters will be moderated."

Mr Morgan also criticised the assembly's electoral system, under which candidates can be elected either as a first-past-the-post constituency member, or through the regional list under proportional representation.

Mr Morgan said candidates defeated in a constituency should "accept defeat".

'More honest'

He said it would make the system "more honest" if defeated constituency candidates did not get through via the list.

Some politicians want the assembly to get more powers

But he said he was not in favour of changing the system fundamentally, because it left the crucial decision of whether there would be a majority government or a coalition in the assembly in the hands of the voters.

The Richard Commission was set up under Lord (Ivor) Richard of Ammanford to look into the work of the assembly since its inception in 1999.

During the past six months, the commission has travelled Wales canvassing the opinions of members of the public in seven public meetings.

It will eventually make recommendations on issues including the Welsh electoral system and whether the assembly needs greater authority, similar to the law-making powers of the Scottish Parliament.

However, any advised changes to the devolution settlement can only be made by Parliament in Westminster.

Lord Richard hopes to submit his report by the end of 2003.

Earlier this month, Labour in Wales chose not to make any specific recommendations about whether the assembly should be given more powers.