Ron Davies believes most of the cabinet will remain the same

Ahead of Thursday's cabinet announcements by First Minister Rhodri Morgan, former Welsh Secretary Ron Davies gave his thoughts to BBC Wales on how the top jobs should be distributed.

"Nothing fuels political gossip as much as the prospect of a cabinet reshuffle.

It is bye-bye to the perks of ministerial office for Mike German and Jenny Randerson and the luxury of two vacancies around the cabinet table for Rhodri Morgan.

The First Minister would certainly be concious of the need to broaden his cabinet base from its present Cardiff dominance.

He might want to prune a little dead wood, he will certainly want to promote potential talent and reward past effort, if only to encourage the others.

This is where things start to get difficult for our newly-elected First Minister.

Carwyn Jones is waiting to hear if he is in the cabinet

First up has to be Jane Hutt - health is the biggest spender by far and - no pun intended - the biggest headache.

Jane's had an arduous time as minister over the last four years but, having spent lots of new money and having had some difficult times trying to account for the little apparent improvement, she may be in line for a well-earned rest.

On the other hand, she is one of Rhodri Morgan's kitchen cabinet and she'll argue she needs more time to bed her reforms in.

There isn't going to be much of a queue either for her job.

Comfort zone?

Carwyn Jones is certain to stay in the cabinet and will be looking for a real job rather than the spin doctoring that has been occupying him of late.

Alun Pugh could represent north Wales

Edwina Hart will be uncompromising in defence of her empire and may well get her way and stay in charge of the purse strings - if not local government as well.

Sue Essex and Jane Davidson look comfortable in their existing jobs and, as fellow members of the kitchen cabinet, should be sleeping soundly.

Not so Andrew Davies, who never quite seems to have got the plot - put your money on him, though, to stay in the cabinet as Rhodri decides to keep his entire cabinet en bloc to show what they can do now shorn of their Lib Dem partners, which brings us nicely back to the two vacancies.

New vacancies

Alun Pugh, who held Clywd West against the odds, has served his time as deputy minister.

He should book a slot on behalf of north Wales, although Karen Sinclair from Clwyd South might be rewarded with a cabinet job for her tireless but unpaid work as Chief Whip.

Still one seat to fill - Peter Law from Blaenau Gwent would be a shrewd appointment - he is a heavyweight who would serve Rhodri and the assembly better as a minister than as a backbencher.

Brian Gibbons, the hard-working health deputy will be sitting close to the phone.

But my money is on John Griffiths of Newport East to book the last slot - it will be interesting to see if his radicalism survives the transition to ministerial office."