A documentary to be broadcast on Tuesday reveals that as many as 10 old people's homes are closing each week, bringing unwelcome disruption for frail pensioners forced to pack their bags and move on.

The Week in Week Out team has been told that unless money is found urgently, more homes will close in a matter of years, leaving a severe shortage of places for the elderly.

Elderly people may not be ill but still need care

The influential Joseph Rowntree Foundation warns that the issue must be taken seriously before it is too late.

Its director of care services, Cedric Dennis, said he was extremely concerned about the implications.

"More people will have to go into hospital, more people will have to be re-admitted into hospital after going home," he said.

"It will create additional bed-blocking, and have a massive effect on the National Health Service, which will then affect acute services."

All we want is a level playing field on the money coming in

Home owner Harry Holder

By 2005, there will be more than 600,000 pensioners in Wales, many of them too frail to look after themselves.

At the moment, more than half of Wales's elderly are looked after in council or private homes.

According to the new report, if homes keep closing at the current rate, Wales will run out of places for our elderly in just four years.

Places like Ashgrove in Swansea are particularly feeling the pinch.

Wooing

Harry Holder built his nursing home in the 1980s, at the time the government began wooing the private sector into the care market.

Now he keeps the home afloat with his two other businesses, and said he is not making enough profit to carry on for long.

"We provide 24-hour care, seven days a week, for �2 an hour," he said.

"All we want is a level playing field on the money coming in.

"Social services pay themselves �180 a week more than they give us - so what are we doing wrong? Everybody goes into business to make a profit."

Welsh councils admit they pay their own homes more, and admit they need to pay the private sector more to stop homes closing.

But they have said they simply do not have enough government money in the first place.

I think we are talking about �100m a year really, in terms of meeting older people's needs to have a quality of life

Social services director Hugh Gardner

Swansea's Director of Social Services Hugh Gardner and vice-chair of the Association of Directors of Social Services Cymru, said they need far more than the �17m extra assembly cash they recently received.

"I think we are talking about �100m a year really, in terms of meeting older people's needs to have a quality of life, in terms of people's requests to Social Services Departments," he said.

Week In Week Out follows the plight of elderly ladies forced to pack their bags and move on from their Llanelli residential home, when the owner sells up.

It is thought that one in 10 pensioners moved on just simply do not survive the trauma.

Week In, Week Out is broadcast on BBC One Wales at 2235BST