Warning over rising jail numbers

The report said it was unlikely prison numbers would see a big fall in 2009

The prison population will reach almost 10,000 in a decade if present trends continue, it has been predicted.

A Scottish Government report said that last month a daily average of 7,376 people were held in jails and a further 309 were on home detention curfew.

It said the figures would reach 9,600 and 380 in 2017 based on current trends - but that its projections would depend on developments over the coming year.

The justice secretary said record amounts were being invested in prisons.

The figure predicted by the chief statistician is higher than projections made this time last year. Officials said the main reason for the rise was a big increase in this year's prison population.

'Relative uncertainty'

The report said: "There have been a series of initiatives in the past few years, such as the focus on knife crime, summary justice reform and changes with respect to bail and legal aid, which are likely to have contributed to the observed increases in the prison population in the shorter term.

"However, other developments, particularly in relation to alternatives to custody, may also impact on the sentencing practice and affect the prison population in the longer term.

"Given the scale of changes over the past few years, and the relative uncertainty about the extent to which future changes might wholly reverse recent trends, it seems unlikely that the prison population will fall to any great extent over the next six months or so."

It also referred to the Prison Commission's recommendations for greater use of alternatives to custody.

We need to bring about radical change Kenny MacAskill Justice Secretary

"If these are implemented, the observed trends in sentencing behaviour will alter in future, and this will have to be taken into account in future prison population projections," the report said.

Labour's justice spokesman, Richard Baker, said: "Over the last 18 months the prison population has increased, not one new establishment has been commissioned and the future plans for the service include replacing Greenock and Inverness Prisons without increasing capacity.

"The SNP talk about tough community sentences but they have achieved nothing."

Robert Brown, the Lib Dem justice spokesperson, said: "The population is already above the safe operational capacity in many of Scotland's prisons.

"This is not a problem for 10 years time, it is a problem now."

'Truly frightening'

Tory justice spokesman Bill Aitken called the projected increase "truly frightening."

He said: "Supply must fit demand, not the other way round - bluntly speaking, if we need more prison space, we must have the courage to build or to find it."

Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill said for many offenders jail was not the answer.

"Why should so many prisoners committing low-level crime get free bed and board courtesy of the taxpayer when they could be paying something back through the sweat of their brow on tough community sentences?" he asked.

"We need to bring about radical change.

"For those who are caught in the revolving door of low-level criminality and who want to get the chance to turn their lives around, tough community penalties delivered swiftly are a much better way to protect our communities in the long-run."

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