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Last Updated: Tuesday, 20 December 2005, 12:10 GMT
Mixed report on population stats
Buchanan Street, Glasgow
Glasgow's population is expected to fall by 2024
The populations of Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen are set to fall by 2024, according to latest projections.

The Registrar General for Scotland said the figures, looking at all council and NHS areas in the country, made "interesting" reading.

Duncan Macniven said the population in half of council areas would increase in size and the other half would fall.

West Lothian and the Borders are set to see the biggest population increase, by 21% and 15% respectively.

The figures suggest that most council areas near and including Edinburgh City will increase in population by 2024.

COUNCIL POPULATIONS TO RISE
West Lothian 102,840 to 196,439
Borders 109,270 to 125,610
South Lanarkshire 305,410 to 317,966
Aberdeenshire 232,850 to 251,300
Edinburgh City 453,670 to 497,319
East Lothian 91,580 to 103,041
North Lanarkshire 322,790 to 323,900

Aberdeen City, Glasgow City, Dundee City and areas in the west of Scotland and the Islands councils are projected to decline.

For NHS board areas, Borders (15%) and Lothian (11%) show the greatest projected increases in population between 2004 and 2024.

The largest decreases are forecast in Western Isles (15%) and Shetland (11%).

The statistics also suggest that Scotland's population is projected to age between 2004 and 2024 in most administrative areas.

By 2024, the population of working age - taking account of the change in women's state pension age between 2010 and 2020 - is projected to increase in 14 council areas and decrease in 18, rising the most in West Lothian (20%) with the highest fall in Aberdeen City (28%).

COUNCIL POPULATIONS TO FALL
Glasgow City 577,670 to 552,339
Aberdeen City 203,450 to 155,242
Dundee City 141,870 to 120,676
East Dunbartonshire 106,550 to 95,328
Dumfries and Galloway 147,930 144,786
South Ayrshire 118,850 to 109,027
Inverclyde 82,430 to 71,250

Mr Macniven said: "The latest projections for Scotland's local areas are interesting.

"Earlier this year we announced that Scotland's population is projected to rise over the next 15 years before declining slowly.

"Breaking this data down to individual council areas shows that around half are set to increase and half to decrease in population."

For council areas, the number of children under 15 is projected to decrease in all areas apart from the Borders (an increase of 7%), West Lothian (5%) and Edinburgh City (3%).

The projected decline in other areas ranges from 43% in Aberdeen City to 0.1% in Fife.

The next set of national and sub-national projections, based on the 2006 population estimates, will be published in 2007.




BBC NEWS: VIDEO AND AUDIO
Aberdeen city will lose almost a quarter of its residents



SEE ALSO:
'Slowdown' in population decline
20 Oct 05 |  Scotland
More people living on their own
30 Aug 05 |  Scotland
Migrants help to boost population
29 Jul 05 |  Scotland
Population grows for second year
27 Apr 05 |  Scotland


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