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Last Updated: Friday, 6 February, 2004, 16:44 GMT
Flooding risk 'set to increase'
Flooding
Flooding is expected to increase over the next 80 years
Scotland faces higher risks of flooding problems in the coming century as a result of climate change, a report has warned.

The Scottish Executive study concluded there will be heavier rainfall and more chance of coastal and river flooding in some areas.

It is hoped the research will enable the executive to take the necessary steps to protect communities.

Rivers in the east could be twice as likely to flood by the 2080s.

The executive has issued stricter guidelines to avoid development on land where the flood risk is high.

Extreme events, that's the high rainfall events, are predicted to increase in magnitude and severity
Gordon Masterton
Babtie Group
The research was carried out for the executive by flood prevention experts the Babtie Group.

Babtie spokesman Gordon Masterton said there will be marked regional variations.

"The impact in the north and west of the country is relatively insignificant, we're talking about something between zero and 10% of a change over the next 80 years or so," he said.

"However, it's less good news for the east of Scotland where the extreme events, that's the high rainfall events, are predicted to increase in magnitude and severity.

"What that means is that peak river flows are likely to increase at these very high peak levels of something between 20 and 30%."

Funding questions

The report also warns that the frequency of coastal flooding will vary across Scotland.

Extreme sea level events in Argyll and Ayrshire could increase from once every 100 years to once every 50 years.

And extreme sea level fluctuations in the far north could become as common as one every 10 years, the report found.

Flooding
River and coastal flooding is predicted
It calls for the funding of flood defences to be heightened.

But Environment Minister Alan Wilson said funding issues were still up for review.

"The increase in flood risks are based on predictions of climate change impact so there are significant uncertainties, so we couldn't say definitely what the impact will be in terms of funding currently," he said.

A greater chance of flooding also raises the prospect of green belt issues for developers and councils, when looking to site new housing developments.

Pat Watters, the president of the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities, said: "There is a pressing need for new house building and we'd have to look at any proposals very, very carefully before we allowed anything to infiltrate into green belt.

"But it's something we would have to consider very, very seriously."

The executive also encouraged people to look at how they can reduce climate change by walking short distances rather than using a car and not over-filling kettles.

Green MSP Mark Ruskell said the research was a "wake up call".

He said: "I am aghast that the executive should on the one hand be spending tax-payers money on ever-more flood defences, and yet be prepared to continue spending billions of pounds on motorway building which is set to increase pollution from ever growing traffic levels."

"It is hypocrisy, complacency and Luddite economics of the highest order."


WATCH AND LISTEN
BBC Scotland's Colin Wight
" The new guidelines will give greater powers to planning authorities"



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