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Last Updated: Thursday, 6 November, 2003, 12:23 GMT
Experts ponder rate rise
By Deirdre Kelly
BBC News Online Scotland

Flat
Average prices have been rising steadily across Scotland
Scotland's business leaders, consumer advice groups and mortgage lenders are pondering the short and long-term effects of a likely interest rate rise.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75% in a bid to counter the debt boom sparked by a surge in UK borrowing.

Experts say the short-term impact will be minimal but there could be consequences long-term.

Vincent Chudy, from Citizens Advice Scotland, said the rise would herald the start of a series of increases.

He said consumers did not tend to react to individual interest rate changes.

Mr Chudy explained: "What they look at is how much will I have to pay a week for example a credit card debt or a new washing machine.

GSPC RATE CHANGE ESTIMATES
0.25% rise on a �50,000 mortgage - �10.42 extra a month
0.50% rise on a �50,000 mortgage - �20.83 extra a month
0.75% rise on a �50,000 mortgage - �31.25 extra a month
1% rise on a �50,000 mortgage - �41.67 extra a month
0.25% rise on a �100,000 mortgage - �20.84 extra a month
0.50% rise on a �100,000 mortgage - �41.66 extra a month
0.75% rise on a �100,000 mortgage - �62.50 extra a month
1% rise on a �100,000 mortgage - �83.34 extra a month
"People look on credit cards in two ways, one how much is the minimum payment this month and second have I reached my credit limit.

"If the debt is manageable on a month-to-month basis then people don't tend to worry."

He said the problem area was mortgages where an interest rate rise would have an immediate impact.

"The �10 or �12 monthly rise may be manageable but if there is no financial leeway the next rise and the next rise after that will create problems," Mr Chudy said.

He added that CAB expected more enquiries from debt-laden consumers in the next few months.

Jeremy Peat, chief economist with the Royal Bank of Scotland, said: "If I had a magic wand I would have gone back to July and I would have stopped the Bank of England from cutting interest rates then."

Mr Peat believes that such action would have served to dampen the housing market while not damaging business confidence.

I don't think the housing market in Scotland has greatly overheated and in terms of modest increases in rates these should be affordable to the majority of house owners
Bill Scouller
GSPC
He said the rise should be put in context and not be a focus of too many worries.

Mr Peat added: "But the Bank of England needs also to give the message that the global economy is improving and that this interest rate cut is targeted at dampening the housing price boom.

"I do have worries about continuing interest rate rises on business, particularly in Scotland."

UK house prices have risen dramatically in recent years driven by a combination of falling interest rates, rising incomes and higher employment.

Cost of borrowing

The market had been showing signs of slowing down earlier this year but the Bank of England's rate cut in July - which took the cost of borrowing to a 48-year low of 3.5% - seems to have breathed new life into it recently.

Last week, the Nationwide Building Society released its own house price index showing prices jumped 2% last month, the strongest for 14 months, growing 16% year-on-year.

The Glasgow Solicitors Property Centre has devised a table showing people roughly by how much extra their mortgage would cost over a range of different interest rate rises.

Chief executive Bill Scouller said: "I don't see a significant change there.

"I don't think the housing market in Scotland has greatly overheated and in terms of modest increases in rates these should be affordable to the majority of house owners, certainly in the Glasgow area and the Scottish market itself."




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