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Last Updated: Tuesday, 5 December 2006, 16:41 GMT
Brown's glimpse of the future
Analysis
By Nick Assinder
Political correspondent, BBC News website

When the chancellor delivers his 10th and very likely final pre-Budget report on Wednesday it will be deconstructed for any signs of what a Gordon Brown premiership will be like.

Chancellor Gordon Brown
Mr Brown will have a political objective
And, if this statement is anything to go by, it will probably be government by survey.

The chancellor is expected to announce big investment in schools and colleges, but there will be a series of other measures backed up by at least four major reports which have been published over recent days.

The Stern review on climate change, combined with the Eddington report on transport, will be used to justify the need for planned increased taxes on air travel and car use, likely to be one of the biggest announcements.

The Leitch report will lead to planned changes in the system of skills training.

And the Barker report will form the basis of an announcement on streamlining planning laws.

The background to these announcements - and others expected on child poverty and other social issues - will be continuing Treasury confidence in the economy, with the chancellor looking to actually increase his growth forecasts.

Political objective

So, the chancellor will come to the Commons armed with any amount of evidence to support his case for - for example - an increase in "green taxes".

For once, he hopes, he will be able to raise taxes without attracting the usual voter backlash- everyone seems to agree on the need for green taxes.

But, probably more than ever, there is an overriding political objective to this statement.

David Cameron
Chancellor's fire will be aimed at Mr Cameron
That is, to set out the territory on which the chancellor intends to take on Tory leader David Cameron in the years leading up to the next general election.

It appears that, apart from all the old claims of economic competence and stability, Mr Brown will be attempting to plant himself firmly at the head of developments on the environment, social protection and public sector reform.

These are all areas the opposition leader has lately marked out as key territory for his new-look Tories and many Labour MPs fear he may be stealing a march on them.

So, Mr Brown will attempt to take them all back as "natural" Labour issues.

Clonking fist

He will also want to dismiss any suggestion that he is, according to the Tories, the "roadblock to reform" in the public services.

So it is likely he will seek to show he is just as committed to continuing reforms in health, education and welfare as the prime minister, with schools once again at the centre of his proposals.

One difficulty is that the future prime minister, whoever it is, will simply not have huge amounts of cash available to pour into the services - a policy which has in any case been attacked for having failed to produce the necessary improvements.

So, apart from investment in schools, any Brown reforms will, presumably, have to be structural.

As ever, the chancellor can also expect to win enthusiastic support from his own backbenchers who always enjoy his Tory taunting performances.

They will be looking for him to deploy that great "clunking fist" Tony Blair talked about to floor his opponents.

And it is certainly the case that the chancellor's blows will be aimed beyond his opposite number, George Osborne, and towards David Cameron - whose first anniversary as Tory leader Mr Brown would dearly love to ruin.




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