Analysis By Nick Assinder Political correspondent, BBC News website

He didn't want to do it for another year - but Tony Blair is to say his final farewells to the Labour Party conference.

Blair has already said goodbye to unions

His last appearance as leader and prime minister will undoubtedly be an emotional affair for all concerned.

But will it be a case of the party declaring "goodbye and good riddance", or sending him off with cheers ringing in his ears and tears welling in their eyes?

Currently, the betting is it will veer towards the latter. His final appearance before the TUC conference earlier in the month was marked by demonstrations, jeers, walkouts and demands for him to go now.

It came only days after the apparently botched coup against him and growing demands for him to set out a precise timetable for his departure, long before the date some time in May which he currently has in mind.

But since those fevered and chaotic days the party, and those closest to the leadership battle's front line, have called a ceasefire.

It may well be temporary and there will undoubtedly be eruptions of dissent at the conference and its fringe events.

Election victories

For example, there are demands from several constituency parties for a conference debate on the leadership and a resignation timetable.

Hoon said Blair should go before next May

Moves by party bosses to block them have already sparked anger and it is a row that is only likely to intensify through the conference.

And there is always the prospect of protests from the conference floor or outside the centre itself.

But there is a feeling that, now they know the prime minister is on his way, delegates may well want to use the conference - notably at his big speech on Tuesday - to thank Mr Blair for leading them to three unprecedented election victories.

The fact that his speech is expected, as usual, to come half way though the rally, rather than at the end also means that any dissent may well be timetabled for the days after his speech, when he may even have left town.

It is that speech, however, that will dominate the conference as the prime minister is expected to concentrate on the future and setting the party on course for the next election as much as his past record.

Preparing to run

His critics will scrutinise his words for any sign that he is trying to tie the hands of his successor and entrench "Blairism" into the party programme.

All eyes will be on Brown's speech

Others will look for any hints that he is ready to submit to the growing demands - most notably recently by minister Geoff Hoon - for him to stand down before next May's crucial local and regional elections.

Similarly, every utterance by ministers like John Reid and Alan Johnson will be pored over for signs that they are preparing to run against the man currently seen as the next prime minister - Gordon Brown.

And so to the chancellor, whose presence will loom over this conference like never before.

Suggestions, hotly denied, that he was behind the attempted coup against the prime minister have thrown him onto the back foot, with suggestions he will now face a leadership challenge from someone in the Blairite camp.

He will probably want to use his big speech the day before Mr Blair's to restate his loyalty to the prime minister, urge party unity, and gently remind the conference he really is still the obvious choice as successor and that he has a distinct, radical programme of his own.

And to a large extent it will be Mr Brown's speech and the conference's reaction to it that will be the most carefully analysed for signs of when he expects to be in No 10 and, in particular, what he will do if and when he gets there.

Nick.Assinder-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk