Analysis By Nick Assinder BBC News Online political correspondent

Michael Howard's European election launch in Manchester had all the excitement of a Christmas day after a burglar has stolen all the presents and eaten the turkey.

Michael Howard demanded TV debate

After Tony Blair's shock referendum U turn a few days before, Mr Howard had been left with his cracker and party hat but few parcels to hand out to the family.

Conservative bosses were forced to tear up their original campaign plans and go back to the drawing board after the prime minister's statement.

Instead of having the demand for a referendum at the centre of their campaign, Mr Howard had to come up with something else.

And it was a pretty carefully constructed alternative EU which he offered to voters.

A "live and let live" EU where countries were allowed to progress in their own ways without being forced into a federalist straight jacket.

In or out

He wants to remove a quarter of all existing regulations, give new ones a defined shelf life after which they would expire and offer referendums on all future treaties that transferred significant sovereignty to Brussels.

But he did not want to pull Britain out of Europe, he insisted. And he repeated his demand - certain to be rejected - for Mr Blair to meet him for a televised debate.

The issue of "in or out" is now likely to be at the centre of the Labour campaign and it is one Mr Howard will struggle to combat.

So the Tory leader will have been delighted that, on the very day of his launch, rescue was at hand in the unlikely guise of the constitution's primary architect Valery Giscard d'Estaing.

Asked on the BBC's Today programme what effects a "no" vote would have in Britain, he declared it would leave the country "on the edge, not outside" the EU.

"It is not a question of saying yes or no to Europe. It is a question of making Europe function."

No vote

That was the sound of gunfire. And, this time, it was one of Tony Blair's foxes being shot.

The prime minister has been running a campaign suggesting that the Tories have a secret agenda to pull Britain out of Europe and want a "no" vote in the UK because it could have precisely that effect.

And every public statement he has made since executing the about face suggests he wants to turn the referendum into a vote on Britain's place within the EU.

That will be a more difficult message to push in the wake of Giscard d'Estaing's remarks.

What the prime minister will almost certainly do now is simply refocus his campaign.

It is still likely he will argue that a "no" vote would have such serious consequences for Britain that it would fundamentally undermine its relationship within the EU.

And he will concentrate on suggesting that, irrespective of the actual effect such a rejection would have, the Tories would still move towards withdrawal.

Meanwhile, the European elections and, more importantly, the local elections on the same day will be a major electoral test for both the main party leaders.

Although the Tories start on a relative high, the Tories need a good showing to prove they really are at last serious general election players.

And the prime minister desperately needs to avoid a rout if his leadership is not to suffer yet another setback.

But, barring a surprise last-minute visit by Santa, it is unlikely there will be too much excitement in the European election campaign.