Tuition fees vote heralds the start of a difficult week for ministers

Of the 155 Labour MPs voicing concern on the plan in a Commons motion, 132 were contacted for the survey.

Sixty-two still planned to vote against the plan, while eight now backed the government's package.

Prime Minister Tony Blair has predicted ministers will win the vote but his official spokesman said on Friday: "There's still a hill to climb."

The spokesman confirmed that Chief Whip Hilary Armstrong had told the cabinet there were still enough Labour rebels to defeat the government in Tuesday's crunch vote.

And despite their predictions of victory, Mr Blair and Education Secretary Charles Clarke were not complacent but were determined to get the policy through, he said.

"Ministers from the prime minister down will continue to engage, discuss and debate with colleagues between now and Tuesday, added the spokesman.

Clarke: "Very confident"

The Higher Education Bill would allow universities in England to charge up to �3,000 in fees, repayable once graduates earn �15,000.

The vote comes the day before Lord Hutton's report on the death of government scientist Dr David Kelly.

Forty-three MPs refused to participate in the BBC survey. Three said they would abstain and 16 were undecided.

The government would lose the vote if 81 Labour MPs and all opposition MPs voted against the plan next Tuesday.

Weekend thinking

BBC political correspondent Carole Walker said perhaps as many as 18 of the 43 who declined to take part in the BBC's Analysis and Research Department survey could be considered likely to oppose the government.

On Thursday, leading Labour rebel George Mudie said: "I think for once the government spin is telling the truth... they would lose today."

He added that as many MPs had gone away from the Commons for the weekend, government whips would have trouble getting hold of them before Monday night, when there would be just 24 hours left ahead of the crucial vote.

SIGNIFICANT LABOUR REBELLIONS: May 2003: Foundation hospitals - 65 MPs March 2003: Anti-war - 139 MPs February 2003: Anti-war - 121 MPs May 1999: Restrictions on incapacity benefit for the disabled - 65 rebels

However, Mr Clarke told BBC Radio 1's Newsbeat he felt positive about Tuesday night. "I feel very confident... but the vote will still be very tight indeed.

"There are a lot of decisions being taken by my colleagues [in their constituencies] over the weekend."

But the education secretary said there was no chance of pulling the bill if the outcome looked bad.

"The vote will definitely happen - the bill will not be withdrawn. The bill will be voted upon next Tuesday."

Tory attacks

Mr Clarke felt the government had "made a pretty good stab" at producing a system that would provide more funds for universities while "establishing fairer student support", he said.

At prime minister's question time on Wednesday, Tory leader Michael Howard denounced the policy as "a complete dog's breakfast".

He accused the prime minister of trying to bully his MPs into breaking a manifesto promise not to bring in the fees.

But commenting on Tory opposition to the plans and the Tories' alternative, Mr Clarke said: "It says: 'Who cares about students - let's close down the universities'. We simply reject this argument."