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Last Updated: Wednesday, 8 October, 2003, 10:53 GMT 11:53 UK
What are the Tory plotters up to?

By Nick Assinder
BBC News Online political correspondent in Blackpool

Shadow Chancellor Michael Howard wants the Tory plotters to belt up.

That, some are muttering, is so his own voice can be heard.

Because, after a frantic 24 hours of feverish speculation, claims and counter claims, the shadow chancellor's name has suddenly been put in the leadership frame.

One of the rumours now doing the rounds is that he may be put forward as the post-Iain Duncan Smith, stop-gap leader - there just to get them through until they can stitch up something better.

Whether this has any credibility whatsoever is open to significant doubt. His every word will now be trawled over with a fine tooth comb.

His apparent refusal to toe the IDS line on taxation is being seen as evidence that he is not only prepared to challenge his leader on policy, but might be prepared to do so over his job.

What is certainly true is that leadership speculation simply refuses to go away.

But there is a massive question mark over whether the plotters can actually get their act together this time.

For the second year running, the conference started with increasingly frantic speculation over Mr Duncan Smith's leadership.

But it has seemed that none of the plotters are ready to break cover and act - yet.

Iain Duncan Smith visiting a Blackpool community centre on Sunday
The Tory leader is pushing his new policies
That is not to say they do not exist. And there are plenty of people running around looking for them and, when they find them, trying to whip them into action.

It is even being rumoured in Blackpool that the dissenters are gathering names for a challenge when parliament returns.

The backbench 1922 committee needs to collect 25 MPs names to spark a leadership election. Depending who you believe, there are already between 12 and 15 in the bag.

But you could collect that many names at virtually any time under virtually any leader.

There is certainly no shortage of advice and coded criticism being aimed at Mr Duncan Smith from the sidelines.

Credentials

It has been suggested that the plotters will not act at the conference because it would be too damaging, too public
The men - and they are all men - whispered as potential leaders, or kingmakers, are all here addressing fringe meetings or even speaking from the platform.

And some of those speeches have been seen as laying out their leadership credentials.

But not one of them has been prepared to go for the throat.

It has been suggested that the plotters will not act at the conference because it would be too damaging, too public. They will wait until later in the year.

Well, we have heard that one before. And, in any case, the argument is nonsense. A leadership challenge would be big news whenever it happened - or do they think nobody will notice?

And if they want to do it before the next election they had better get their collective fingers out.

Radical policies

All this has led some of the more optimistic in the party to believe the conspirators are all talk and no action. A dangerous assumption.

On everything from health, education and law and order to asylum and pensions Mr Duncan Smith has a radical new policy
It seems much more likely they simply cannot find a suitable candidate they can all agree on and who they could then manoeuvre into position without sparking a ballot of the entire membership.

That is what happened last time, after all.

However, if they can get their act together this time there is still the possibility of a move on Mr Duncan Smith before Christmas.

Meanwhile, as much of the media attention has been focused on the leadership, the shadow cabinet has been unleashing an entire manifesto's worth of policies.

On everything from health, education and law and order to asylum and pensions Mr Duncan Smith has a radical new policy.

It is the continuation of a process which he started last year and which, he hopes, will finally persuade the electorate that he and his party are a real alternative to the government.

It is also the thing he believes may finally silence the snipers.

This all has an unearthly feeling of familiarity about it. We were here this time last year.

The Tory rally is in danger of becoming the conference that cries wolf.




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