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Last Updated:  Thursday, 13 March, 2003, 11:08 GMT
Kennedy's war bonus

By Nick Assinder
BBC News Online political correspondent

Kennedy accused of appeasing
Liberal Democrat leaders have a delightful habit of getting under other MPs' skins.

And, where war on Iraq is concerned, Charles Kennedy has proved just as successful at that as his predecessors.

Labour and Tory MPs who support the prime minister can hardly contain themselves every time Mr Kennedy gets to his feet during question time.

"Opportunist. Appeaser. Loser," are amongst the least offensive remarks yelled at him.

The main charge is that he has changed his tune on possible war to jump onto the bandwagon of anti-war public opinion.

And there is little doubt that he has taken a calculated decision to market himself as the only leader opposed to war.

One of the fiercest attacks came from Nicholas Soames, the grandson of Winston Churchill, who likened Mr Kennedy to Neville Chamberlain - the British prime minister portrayed in history as the leader who failed to recognise the threat from Adolf Hitler.

Wavering voters

Mind you, attacks from larger-than-life Mr Soames will probably only serve to boost Mr Kennedy's standing amongst his supporters.

But it has also been said - more significantly - that there is a closer parallel with Hugh Gaitskell at the time of the Suez crisis of 1956.

The Labour leader opposed action against Egyptian leader President Nasser and had a high level of public support.

And the war did indeed lead to the downfall of the Tory leader, Anthony Eden, who resigned the following year.

But Labour totally failed to take advantage of the Tory crisis and went on to decisively lose the 1959 general election.

Tony Blair will not be unaware of the parallels but they also suggest that, whatever Mr Kennedy's motives, he will probably fail to gain huge electoral support as a result.

To be sure, any wavering voters who oppose the war cannot find a home with the Tories and may be tempted to back the Lib Dems.

But there is little sign in the opinion polls that that is happening to any significant extent.

Mr Kennedy continues to get good personal ratings, but his party remains roughly where it was before the war talk.

And once the war starts, he will have to back British troops.

Mr Kennedy is also keen to put some distance between himself and Labour amid claims his party is Labour-lite. That has even led to claims he is more left wing than the Labour party.

He will dismiss some of that in a speech in which he will reject anti-globalisation arguments and back global free trade.

Meanwhile, he continues to be seen as the most honest and principled of the three major party leaders. And his stance on the war is likely to boost that view.

But, while all this may succeed in carving out a distinctive and even popular platform for the Lib Dems, few would be ready to bet it will have a huge effect on the party's electoral hopes.




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