By Nick Assinder BBC News Online political correspondent

At the same time, she and her boss Iain Duncan Smith are insisting there will be no leadership challenge this side of the next general election.

Well, they have to say that, but there's hardly a single MP of any colour who believes a word of it.

Most still believe that if the Tories really do pick up only about 30 seats, a coup against Mr Duncan Smith will be a near certainty.

The leadership's comments are seen as a classic case of talking down a result because they fear the worst - in an attempt to shore up their beleaguered leader's position.

They are pointing out that the party did so well the last time these seats were up for grabs four years ago that they cannot be expected to do much better.

That is only partly true. In 1999 - when William Hague was facing a near identical leadership crisis to Iain Duncan Smith's current one - the party was fighting from an unprecedented low point after a Labour landslide four years before.

Little effect

Barring floods, pestilence or earthquake they were guaranteed to pick up large numbers of seats - with most betting on between 1,000 and 1,500.

In the end, William Hague broke through the four figure barrier and managed to stave off a leadership challenge. To little effect, as it turned out, when the big poll came two years later.

And he left the party with much more to be done before any talk of a real political comeback would look like anything more than wishful thinking.

Now Mr Duncan Smith is re-living his predecessor's nightmare and desperately needs a good showing to see off those plotting his downfall from the backbenches.

And few can think of a time when the opposition party had more favourable political weather in which to fight local elections.

Tony Blair has never been so unpopular, his government less trusted and his domestic policies so under assault than at the moment.

Normally, the opposition might be expected not just to do OK, but to walk it.

Local issues

Indeed a few days ago it appeared the plotters were so spooked by the government's troubles and their leader's improving Commons performances that they moved too early.

It has been whispered that would-be kingmaker Michael Portillo made his devastating remarks about his leader because he feared the party might do well in the local polls.

That would strengthen Mr Duncan Smith's position and make a leadership challenge far more difficult.

But the latest remarks from the leadership suggest they are far from confident and still fear they will fail to capitalise on the government's woes.

And it is always a sign of the jitters when parties start insisting the local polls are about local issue.

In other words: "please don't judge us on our leader or our national performance - just look at what a good job you local councillor has done for your rubbish collection service."

Well, even if local voters take that advice - those who bother to turn out at all - it is a sure bet Tory MPs will not.

And that is why a net gain of only 30 seats may well set the seal on Mr Duncan Smith's leadership.