By Shaun Ley BBC political correspondent

Christmas gifts from politicians should probably be treated in the same way Trojans would regard presents from the Ancient Greeks - with caution.

With that caveat, let us consider Iain Duncan Smith's announcement in the Sunday Times that lowering taxes will be at the heart of his programme for government.

Cutting tax is the equivalent of the holly and the ivy in the Conservative lexicon: a long-standing tradition.

Mr Duncan-Smith has in the recent past been experimenting with different kinds of decorations.

Cutting taxes has worked for Conservative leaders before

After last year's election defeat - which, remember, came at the end of a campaign in which the Conservatives promised to cut taxes - Mr Duncan Smith said his party had a new priority: the public services.

It was not that he was banishing the holly and the ivy from the seasonal picture, just that he thought a splash of fresh colour - some tinsel maybe, or fairy lights - would be a good idea.

Now though the Conservative Leader says lower taxes and less red tape are priorities for him; and he reminds us he has never promised to match Labour's spending pledges.

On the latter point, he is quite correct. The mistake his predecessor made in the last election was to promise cuts while simultaneously committing the Tories to retaining Labour's existing levels of spending.

No-one believed it was possible to do both.

Ahead of the game?

The charitable view (and after all, it is the season of goodwill to all men, even quiet ones) is that Mr Duncan Smith is ahead of the game.

He has recognised that public tolerance of Labour's tax rises is diminishing.

As he said in the Sunday Times interview, voters are keen to see evidence the extra money Gordon Brown is asking them to pay is actually improving the NHS.

The prime minister is acutely conscious of how little time he has left to make good on his promise after the last election to reform and improve Britain's public services.

Mr Duncan Smith may have calculated he cannot do it, and this will become apparent by next spring, when the next tax rises come into effect.

There is, though, an alternative view. It too is influenced by events in the spring - England's local council elections, and those for Scotland's Parliament and the National Assembly in Wales.

Last throw of the dice?

Many inside the Conservative Party see those polls in May as the last chance for Mr Duncan Smith's leadership.

If the party fails to make a breakthrough in what will be the half-way point of this parliament, then most of them think IDS will be RIP.

So could Sunday's interview represent the last desperate throw of the dice by a beleaguered leader?

Mr Duncan Smith himself admits the Conservatives are still not seen as a credible alternative to Labour.

Labour's vulnerable flank

Their attempts to offer new ideas on the reform of hospitals and schools have had limited impact, even though this seems to be Mr Blair's most vulnerable flank.

Cutting taxes has worked for Conservative leaders before.

Now he has ditched William Hague's commitment to matching Labour's spending plans, it may work for Mr Duncan Smith.

To know for certain though we will have to wait for a visitation from the Ghost of Christmas yet to come.