A majority now thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction

Poll report

The paper suggested that the poll was done for the prime minister and his strategists. Downing Street said they had not paid for the information but had seen the results.

The poll was conducted by GGC/NOP whose founders, Philip Gould and Stanley Greenberg, advise the prime minister on public opinion.

The report's anonymous author argued that the turning point in the chances of a pro-euro vote in a referendum had been boosted by the poll's findings that 40% of the country was now prepared to vote yes.

"The fact that more than 40% of the country is now prepared to vote yes represents a kind of milestone.

"We still trail significantly in the euro referendum but now seem in reach for the first time."

Mr Blair still favours the government's five tests

The poll found that the yes side is 14 points behind the no camp with 41% to 55%.

But that gap seemed to fall to six points when restricted to those people who consider themselves likely to bother to vote.

The poll indicated that the margin would drop further to three points once the government had declared its backing for the yes campaign.

But the picture painted by the report of the current sense of satisfaction among voters will make bleak reading for Mr Blair.

The report states: "People have a great deal of uncertainty and, increasingly, see less progress."

Winnable exercise?

It says: "A majority now thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction, a malady since the beginning of the year."

It also suggests that the pro-euro campaign has reached "new levels of support".

"For the first time, I am beginning to believe this is a winnable exercise, with identifiable strategy - and not one that requires that we remake British history and culture.

"Our ability to move to the next step will depend in part upon whether the government is able to reconnect with many of those who have become disengaged from Labour since the mid-1990s."