Euroland's lemming rush has no bearing on the British decision about entry

They'll come in three stages. Major countries face elections this year so governments will press Duisenberg, the great deflator, for lower interest rates.

Next come the long-term stresses and strains of the "one rate can't cover all" problem Europe can't check Irish inflation or reverse recession in Germany with the same interest rate.

Different demands

Germany badly needs lower interest rates and a lower euro to stimulate its export orientated economy.

Finally come the deflationary requirements of Maastricht and the stability pact.

Economies in recession need to boost spending and borrowing for a counter cyclical stimulus.

Yet Germany is already knocking on the 3% ceiling. Cuts and fines in that situation would be madness. Yet that is what Stability Pact requires.

'No rush to judgement'

No doubt Europe will muddle through but the dilemmas have effects on confidence, investment and the value of the euro.

So let's wait before rushing to praise or condemn, remembering as we do that the British economy is doing better than Euroland's and that British businesses taking euro is no different from the foreign exchange transactions involved for those who already take D Marks or Dollars.

Euroland's lemming rush has no bearing on the British decision about entry that depends totally on the competitive valuation of the Pound against the euro.

Until the present overvaluation is ended we can't even think about joining, yet Euroland's travails seem set to widen it over the next six months at least.