Outbreak under control

Huge sums of money have already been spent by all the political parties on pre-election campaigning.

And when Mr Blair announced a postponement it left a gaping hole in most politicians' diaries.

Neither they nor the overwhelming majority of voters would be pleased if there was now a further delay.

Diary date

The gamble for Mr Blair when he made his difficult decision to put off polling day for a month was twofold.

First, it was based on the expectation that he would be able to make the statement he has now delivered. He probably even had the date for the statement written into his diary.

But he knew that if he could not claim, as he has now done, that "we are on the home straight" he would have blown it.

A further delay would have looked like panic and he would have entered the campaign in the embarrassing position of looking as though the disease was in control of him.

So his statement that he has it under control has come at just the right time.

But even that contains an element of gamble. As he admitted himself, it would be dangerous to assume the crisis was completely over.

In a statement which many might see as applying as much to the general election as to foot-and-mouth, he declared: "It is not over yet, we cannot in any way be complacent."

There is a small risk that the outbreak could flare up again and that would prove disastrous.

More events

The second gamble was that other "events" would not erupt out of the blue to hit his otherwise impregnable-looking poll ratings.

There have, inevitably, been some small rumbles. There was the expected May Day trouble, the London underground dispute and, now, a possible flare up in the Geoffrey Robinson affair.

There are some fears that, because of global conditions, the economy might be entering a difficult period.

And, thanks to the German SPD, the issue of a federal Europe has again raised its head.

But, so far, none of these appears strong enough to cause the government any serious trouble.

If the opinion polls are right, Mr Blair is still firmly on course for his dreamed-of second term.

A lot of water will flow under the bridge between now and 7 June and most expect Mr Blair to have his fair share of setbacks during the campaign.

But the foot-and-mouth statement will almost certainly be seen as the event at which the prime minister set his party on course for that date with destiny.

Now he seems to be clearing his diary to make the final adjustments before announcing the election date.