The devolved executive at Stormont has now survived 100 days in power.

It is a feat which proved too much for the last administration (it was a 72-day wonder).

But 'Devolution Mark-Two' is now 100 not-out. A landmark has been passed and there is a quiet sense of achievement around Stormont.

Confidence in the political process has, however, been damaged in the past three months.

The loyalist paramilitary feud, and the civil unrest during the Drumcree marching dispute, brought death and destruction back to the streets of Northern Ireland. Many believed those days were over.

Vulnerabiliities

The response from the pro-Agreement camp has been 'no-one said it would be easy'....and the First Minister David Trimble has attempted to restore confidence by saying that the difficulties ahead are 'hills rather than mountains'.

But he too is aware that recent events have highlighted how vulnerable the new political arrangements may still be.

And that is why when he goes to Washington this week with the Deputy First Minister Seamus Mallon, the two leaders will not be doing a lap of honour round the White House celebrating Stormont's 100 days of power. That would be premature.

A number of tests lie ahead - the most immediate being the South Antrim parliamentary by-election on September 21st, when the Ulster Unionist Party will be defending a majority of 16,000 votes.

Trying to take the seat off the UUP will be the DUP, Alliance Party, the SDLP, Sinn Fein and the Natural Law Party. It will be an fascinating contest.

October and November are likely to be dominated by the policing issue, as the Government finalises its new Police Bill at Westminster.

Feelings are already running extremely high on the issue - within both unionism and nationalism.

And there is no sign yet of a force emerging that will receive the widespread political support which it needs.

So will it be a Happy Christmas at Stormont?

Happiness may be too much to ask. The aim for the pro-Agreement camp is simply to ensure that is that by the end of December, the devolved executive is 200 not-out.