By Mark Devenport BBC Northern Ireland political editor

Jeffrey Donaldson's warning, made in a 12 July speech to County Down Orangemen, that the Ulster Unionist Party may be about to "implode" has to be taken seriously.

However, supporters of party leader David Trimble may well take the view that if there's anyone guilty of letting the air out of the Ulster Unionist balloon then it's Mr Donaldson himself.

The significance of Sir Reg Empey's decision to abstain over the question of fresh disciplinary action against the rebel MPs cannot be overstated

The Lagan Valley MP's decision to resign the parliamentary whip, alongside his two colleagues Martin Smyth and Jeffrey Donaldson, only put the finishing touches to the dish of dissent which the sceptics have been cooking up for a long time.

Mr Trimble himself quoted the former US President Harry S Truman's famous dictum, "if you can't stand the heat, then get out of the kitchen," to summarise his attitude to the internecine conflict.

Just in case anyone didn't get his message just after he had seen off a challenge by dissidents within his own Upper Bann constituency, Mr Trimble confirmed that he would be staying in the kitchen.

But is Mr Trimble slowly cooking his own goose?

He obviously feels that he has no choice but to deal swiftly and decisively with the challenge from the three MPs.

Success in this course of action, the argument goes, would lead to a new purposeful pro-Agreement Ulster Unionist Party.

Flouting

Failure to confront such a direct flouting of the leader's authority would only further weaken Mr Trimble's position, but not everyone is convinced.

Suspending or excluding such high-profile figures might lead to one or more of their constituency associations disaffiliating from the party, and the once proud unionist monolith could end up as a series of inconsequential rumps.

With that in mind, the significance of Sir Reg Empey's decision to abstain over the question of fresh disciplinary action against the rebel MPs cannot be overstated, especially as it is understood that the Member of the European Parliament, Jim Nicholson, shares Sir Reg's analysis.

The senior negotiator, hitherto seen as one of Mr Trimble's closest lieutenants, says his position is "not inconsistent" with that of his leader and denies that it amounts to the start of a leadership challenge.

Nevertheless, some Ulster Unionists, including a number of former assembly members, have clearly come to the conclusion that the only way for the party to heal its wounds is to seek new management, together with a new policy and new constitutional structures.

The idea is that unionists would stiffen their opposition to the joint declaration, which should please the rebels.

With many unionists increasingly hoping their leaders will find some other way out, the hour for a policy compromise could be at hand

The sceptics would also be asked to support reforms of elements in the party constitution which have opened up the leadership to constant challenges and reserved places on the ruling council for an Orange Order which appears increasingly distant from the party mainstream.

Such a compromise might never be possible - the unionists may continue down an unstoppable path towards either Mr Donaldson's predicted implosion or to the cleansing of the Augean stables, which Mr Trimble seems to have in mind.

Yet with many unionists increasingly hoping their leaders will find some other way out, the hour for a policy compromise could be at hand.

As the saying goes, cometh the hour, cometh the man.

Despite Sir Reg's insistence on Radio Ulster's Inside Politics that talk of leadership changes amounts to no more than "musical chairs," by carving out a separate course from Mr Trimble, he has left the unquestionable impression that he might just be the man.