Brian Rowan BBC Northern Ireland security editor

Transfer of policing powers to local politicians is a crucial issue

By next Thursday, the UK and Irish prime ministers are expected to have published the most important documents since the historic Good Friday Agreement of April 1998.

It will be the end point after almost six months of negotiations stretching back to October last year, when Tony Blair first spoke of the need for "acts of completion".

But one issue that won't be fully settled next week is that of policing.

A Sinn Fein decision to endorse the new policing arrangements requires the backing of a special party conference.

That will not happen this side of the scheduled 29 May assembly elections in Northern Ireland.

But the British Government is hopeful that the "signals" on policing will be good enough and that the IRA's acts of completion - as yet undeclared - will also be good enough to allow progress across a range of other issues.

The must-stop activities are listed - weapons development and acquisition; intelligence gathering; targeting and training; punishment attacks and exiling; and involvement in riots

The government is not expecting any move from the IRA before the publication of the documents next week.

"I wouldn't expect anything before next week," a British Government source told BBC News Online.

"There is no logic in doing anything before."

'Human rights'

But in the papers, expected to be published within the next week, all paramilitaries will be told exactly what is expected of them and the activities which must stop.

In a section headed "Paramilitarism", it is understood the issues of paramilitary activity, sectarian violence and criminality are addressed.

And the "must-stop" activities are listed - weapons development and acquisition; intelligence gathering; targeting and training; punishment attacks and exiling; and involvement in riots.

Sinn Fein's talks with the UK Government continue

If all goes to plan, the IRA ceasefire would be re-defined and the organisation would become much less obvious. It will not disband.

But any IRA move will be conditional on British "acts of completion" on policing, demilitarisation, on-the-run paramilitaries and in the area of human rights and equality.

As far as republicans are concerned, these are all "works in progress" and the talking between Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness and the British and Irish Governments continues.

That said, progress is being made in these discussions - including on the highly controversial issue of plastic bullets.

'Crucial issue'

Talks sources are suggesting that in the context of some alternative being found, the British Government will commit to no longer using the riot control weapon beyond the end of this year.

It is by no means a guaranteed outcome, but an indication of an intention to speed up the research programme which is about finding an "acceptable and effective and less lethal alternative".

After the backward steps of last year, the British and Irish Governments are now looking for forward movement

The same sources are also suggesting progress on increasing Catholic representation within the police service and on the future role of the PSNI Special Branch.

But on another issue seen as crucial to Sinn Fein's participation in the new arrangements - the transfer of policing and justice powers to local politicians - the matter appears deadlocked.

"The time-frame is the crucial area to be concluded on," a party source told BBC News Online.

The nuts and bolts of how and when this is done has been left to local politicians, but in continuing discussions involving Sinn Fein and David Trimble's Ulster Unionist Party, there is nothing at this time to suggest that significant progress is being made.

Indeed republican sources say they don't know "whether or not David Trimble is up for a deal" - not just on policing and justice - but on all the matters which need to be settled if the suspended political institutions are to be restored at Stormont.

But another source responded by saying: "They (republicans) must know he will do the deal if it is big enough."

That is in the IRA's hands, and Mr Trimble will not be in a position to make an overall judgement on any deal until the republican group declares its intentions.

Indeed, until the IRA speaks, pro-Agreement unionists will have to absorb much criticism over what will be viewed as government concessions across policing, demilitarisation and the settling of the on-the-runs issue.

If the IRA responds positively to the papers due to be published by the British and Irish Governments next week, then the next steps could be:

• An IRA statement addressing the activities raised in the governments' paper
• An IRA re-engagement with the de Chastelain Commission
• A third act of IRA arms being put beyond use
• A de Chastelain report confirming this has happened

Retired Canadian general John de Chastelain is back in Belfast, but has had no talks with the IRA since it suspended its contact with the arms body last October.

That move was in retaliation for the suspension of the political institutions, including the power-sharing executive in Belfast.

But after the backward steps of last year, the British and Irish Governments are now looking for forward movement.

There are three big questions: Can the British do enough for the IRA? Will the IRA in response do enough for the Ulster Unionists? And will all of this lead to a deal and to the planned election going ahead on 29 May?

There is a lot to be done and, as usual, not much time to do it.