Back in November 1995, the world's most powerful politician made an unprecedented visit to Belfast.

Flanked by nervous bodyguards, the US President Bill Clinton went walkabout on both sides of the peaceline and told the men of violence from both communities: "You are the past, your day is over."

This week Bill Clinton was back. It is the second time he has visited Northern Ireland since leaving office.

Given that he is no longer in power, this trip was far more low key.

However, the former president found himself dealing with similar questions about the tenacious grip of violence on Northern Ireland society.

The sectarian frontline between the Catholic Short Strand and the Protestant Lower Newtownards Road has remained extremely tense throughout the week

Once again he pointed to a brighter future, describing the rioting in east Belfast in recent days as "the last gasps of the old order" and challenging local political representatives to provide real leadership.

But on the ground, confidence in the ability of that leadership to provide a peaceful future is in short supply.

Sectarian killings

Instead, we have Army helicopters constantly in the air looking down on a depressing scene east of the River Lagan.

The sectarian frontline between the Catholic Short Strand and the Protestant Lower Newtownards Road has remained extremely tense throughout the week.

Republicans argue that rivalry between local loyalist paramilitaries has led to the screw being tightened on what they view as the virtual siege of the Short Strand

The low points included shooting from both sides of the line, the disruption of a Catholic funeral and the intimidation by masked loyalists of students attending classes at an east Belfast college.

Historically, Short Strand has always been a flashpoint - sectarian killings in this neck of the woods date back to the 1880s, and there were many clashes in the area at the outset of the latest troubles.

However, this week's disorder did surprise some observers because the east Belfast interface had appeared more under control than similar neighbourhoods in the north of the city.

Republicans and loyalists give sharply contrasting explanations for the latest disorder.

'Current confines'

Republicans argue that rivalry between local loyalist paramilitaries has led to the screw being tightened on what they view as the virtual siege of the Short Strand.

Gerry Adams will tell Tony Blair in Downing Street that anti-Agreement loyalists are trying unsuccessfully to goad the IRA back into violence.

Peter Robinson: Community regeneration package

On the other hand, the loyalist David Ervine described one recent bout of rioting as an attempt by republicans to tempt the police into the Short Strand in order to both ambush police officers and to portray themselves as a community being victimised by the security forces.

Local Democratic Unionist MP Peter Robinson sees the battle as territorial, claiming that Short Strand republicans want their community to expand outside its current confines in the hope that this will then have a knock-on effect on the right of loyalists to hold parades in the area.

Short Strand Sinn Fein councillor Joe O'Donnell says he will talk to anyone to try to calm things down.

'Depressing reality'

However, Peter Robinson says such negotiations would be worthless as republicans will not stick to any promises they make.

The East Belfast MP does support a community regeneration package, incorporating safety measures, along the lines of the one pioneered by the first and deputy first ministers in north Belfast.

The difficulty with this, as David Trimble and Mark Durkan have been discovering, is that opposing communities will readily agree to such a package in principle, but are likely to be at loggerheads over the details.

David Ervine: "Attempt by republicans to tempt police"

The executive is ready, for instance, to send building workers into Ardoyne within weeks, however Protestant and Catholic representatives cannot agree what adjustments those workers should make to the pattern of roads and peace walls already in the area.

The depressing reality is that in the short term, the future for Belfast appears to be the construction of higher and stronger walls.

And if the people living on either side of those walls look to their politicians they will see many of them contradicting each other - or, as in Belfast City Hall during last week's election of the city's first Sinn Fein Mayor Alex Maskey, openly throwing insults at each other.

Not quite the example of leadership one imagines Bill Clinton had in mind.

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