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Friday, 15 March, 2002, 10:02 GMT
Speculation grows over arms move
test hellotest
By Brian Rowan
BBC Northern Ireland chief security correspondent
line

There is growing speculation that the IRA is about to decommission more of its arsenal of weapons.

Security and republican sources are not ruling out the possibility and some believe it could happen soon.

When it first moved in October last year to put arms beyond use, the IRA breathed new life into the Northern Ireland peace process.

It lifted that process out of a period of crisis and created stability within the new political institutions.

The move back then had been well signalled and there had been a build up in terms of expectation.


An assessment will have to be made, but the signals are more positive than negative

Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness had been involved in intensive talks with the other key political players in Belfast, London, Dublin and Washington.

The "putting of arms beyond use" became part of a carefully choreographed sequence of events.

Any move now by the IRA is likely to be set in the context of a commitment to its continuing dialogue with the international decommissioning body headed by Canadian General John de Chastelain.

He is due back at his office in Belfast next Tuesday, but could return sooner if needed.

There is no concrete information to confirm an IRA move is imminent, but sources whose instincts on this issue have been good in the past, are hinting at possibilities.

The first such public hint came a week ago at a meeting of Northern Ireland's Policing Board.

Sir Ronnie Flanagan
Sir Ronnie Flanagan: Hinted at arms move

The Chief Constable, Sir Ronnie Flanagan, told members he had no doubt that an IRA arms move was being "considered" but had no information to suggest it had already happened.

Since then, other police sources have indicated that the IRA is "moving in that direction".

"All their volunteers have been prepared for it," a source told me.

"I would be very confident of it (happening)," he added.

But a republican source was more cautious. He said the emphasis should still be on "possibilities".

"What we have to weigh up is impact - the internal reaction," he said.

The reaction first time round was not good, and the IRA lost members after the announcement last October that arms had been put beyond use.

So an assessment will have to be made, but the signals are more positive than negative.

'Cynical ploy'

A second event would dismiss any suggestion that what happened last October was a "stunt" or a "one-off" - the IRA would be involved in a decommissioning process.

Timing too will be important.

There had been speculation that the IRA would move closer to the Republic of Ireland's general election in May, but republican sources appear to be ruling this out.

They fear a move then would be dismissed as a cynical ploy - the trading of guns for votes.

If it happens earlier, at a time when there is no sense of crisis within the political process and in the absence of any deadline, it will have the look of a genuine gesture on the part of the IRA - another move to enhance the peace process.

It would also allow the IRA to say it is honouring its commitments.

And it will put pressure on the British Government to deliver on promises it has made on so-called OTRs - republicans who are "on-the-run".

Unionists have made clear their opposition to any amnesty.

But by the end of this month, the government has committed itself to bringing forward proposals for dealing with this most difficult of issues.

It will be hoping for a second arms move to cushion that blow.


Assembly back

IRA arms breakthrough

Background

Loyalist ceasefire

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See also:

06 Mar 02 | Northern Ireland
Further IRA arms move 'considered'
23 Oct 01 | Northern Ireland
IRA in arms breakthrough
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