A BBC opinion poll has suggested that more people in Northern Ireland would prefer a fresh assembly election to another temporary suspension of devolution.

The poll was commissioned by the BBC Northern Ireland political programme, Hearts and Minds.

The election option was favoured by 41% of those polled as opposed to 31% who opted for another one day suspension by Secretary of State John Reid.

The temporary suspension would allow a further six weeks for any breakthrough to be found.

Unless agreement is reached to elect a new first and deputy first minister by midnight on Saturday, the assembly has to be either suspended or dissolved by the British Government.

Policing

The poll also gauged the level of support for the proposed new Police Board.

The results suggest that more than 60% of unionists and nationalists are prepared to back the new board.

The survey was conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers on 10 - 11 September and completed before the attacks in New York and Washington.

A total of 1,178 people responded to the survey with interviews being conducted in all 18 Westminster constituencies and 26 district council areas.

The poll - with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8% - is fully representative of Northern Ireland's adult population in terms of age, gender, religion, geography and social class.

The religious breakdown was in line with the adult population in Northern Ireland - 57% Protestant and 43% Catholic.

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If no agreement is reached amongst parties by 23 September, what do you think the secretary of state should do?

Call fresh elections for a new assembly:
Total: 41%
Unionist: 36.7%
Nationalist: 46.7%
Other : 41.1%

Order another one day suspension to give parties six more weeks to reach agreement:
Total: 31.2%
Unionist: 21.6%
Nationalist: 42%
Other : 43.3%

Order an indefinite suspension of the executive and cross-border institutions:
Total: 27.8%
Unionist: 41.7%
Nationalist: 11.3%
Other : 15.6%

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Do you think that the party that best represents your views should support nominations to the new Policing Board?

YES
Total: 63.8%
Unionist: 64.1%
Nationalist: 60.6%
Other : 85.6%

NO
Total: 36.2%
Unionist: 35.9%
Nationalist: 39.4%
Other : 14.4%

Unionist split:
YES:
UUP 79.5%; DUP 46.2%; UKU 32%; PUP 67.4%; NIUP 42.9%; UDP 57.1%.
NO:
UUP 20.5%; DUP 53.8%; UKU 68%; PUP 32.6%; NIUP 57.1%; UDP 42.9%.

Nationalist split:
YES:
SDLP 81.6%; Sinn Fein 34.8%
NO:
SDLP 18.4%; Sinn Fein 65.2%; Rep SF 100%; 32 CSC 100%.

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Three years ago, how did you vote in the referendum on the Good Friday Agreement and if it were held again today, how would you vote?

THEN YES:
Total 65.9%
Unionist 52.3%
Nationalist 82.7%
Other 76.7%

THEN NO:
Total 18%
Unionist 32.3%
Nationalist 3%
Other 2.2%

NOW YES:
Total 58.3%
Unionist 37.4%
Nationalist 85.7%
Other 66.7%

NOW NO:
Total 28.3%
Unionist 50.9%
Nationalist 3.6%
Other 8.9%

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Under which of the following circumstances would you support David Trimble going back into government as first minister?

He should go back without any preconditions:
Total: 26.6%
Unionist: 12%
Nationalist: 45.7%
Other : 28.9%

When the IRA makes a statement committing to a definite timetable for decommissioning:
Total: 17.9%
Unionist: 15.9%
Nationalist: 18.6%
Other : 28.9%

When the IRA make a start to actual decommissioning:
Total: 23.3%
Unionist: 32.5%
Nationalist: 9.2%
Other : 32.2%

When the IRA complete the process of verifiable decommissioning:
Total: 12%
Unionist: 19.8%
Nationalist: 3.2%
Other : 5.6%

Under no circumstances:
Total: 20.2%
Unionist: 19.8%
Nationalist: 23.3%
Other : 4.4%

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Under which of the following circumstances would you support David Trimble going back into government as first minister? (By party affiliation)

He should go back without any preconditions:
Total: 26.6%
Ulster Unionists: 16.3%
DUP: 10%
SDLP: 40.1%
Sinn Fein: 53.7%

When the IRA makes a statement committing to a definite timetable for decommissioning:
Total: 17.9%
Ulster Unionists: 22%
DUP: 5%
SDLP: 27.1%
Sinn Fein: 8%

When the IRA make a start to actual decommissioning:
Total: 23.3%
Ulster Unionists: 36.6%
DUP: 24.5%
SDLP: 14.9%
Sinn Fein: 2%

When the IRA complete the process of verifiable decommissioning:
Total: 12%
Ulster Unionists: 18.6%
DUP: 23.5%
SDLP: 3.1%
Sinn Fein: 3.5%

Under no circumstances:
Total: 20.2%
Ulster Unionists: 6.4%
DUP: 37%
SDLP: 14.9%
Sinn Fein: 32.8%

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Which of the following groupings/parties would best represent your views?

Ulster Unionists: 25%
DUP: 17%
Progressive Unionists: 3.7%
UK Unionists: 2.1%
Ulster Democratic Party: 1.8%
SDLP: 22.2%
Sinn Fein: 17.1%
Republican Sinn Fein: 0.2%
32 County Sovereignty Committee: 0.3%
Alliance Party: 5.1%
Women's Coalition: 1.6%
Conservative: 0.3%
Other: 0.5%

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Which of the following groupings/parties would best represent your views?

Total: Unionist 51%; Nationalist 41%

All Unionist: UUP 49.9%; DUP 33.8%; UKU 4.2%; PUP 7.3%; NIUP 1.2%; UDP 3.6%.

All Nationalist: SDLP 56%; Sinn Fein 42.9%; Rep SF 0.4%; 32 CSC 0.6%

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Do you think that the ceasefires of the following organisations are still intact?

IRA YES:
Total: 37.8%
Unionist: 13.6%
Nationalist: 69.8%
Other : 34.1%

IRA NO:
Total: 62.2%
Unionist: 86.4%
Nationalist: 30.2%
Other : 65.9%

UVF YES:
Total: 21.4%
Unionist: 25.1%
Nationalist: 16.9%
Other : 25%

UVF NO:
Total: 78.6%
Unionist: 74.9%
Nationalist: 83.1%
Other : 75%

UDA/UFF YES:
Total: 15.9%
Unionist: 20.3%
Nationalist: 10.1%
Other : 20.5%

UDA/UFF NO:
Total: 84.1%
Unionist: 79.7%
Nationalist: 89.9%
Other : 79.5%

LVF YES:
Total: 15.4%
Unionist: 19%
Nationalist: 10.5%
Other : 19.3%

LVF NO:
Total: 84.6%
Unionist: 81%
Nationalist: 89.5%
Other : 80.7%

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In whose hands is the Union safest? (Unionists only)

David Trimble 48% (1999 41.3%; 1998 42%)
Ian Paisley 32.2% (1999 26.7%; 1998 27%)
David Ervine 7.6% (1999 10.2%; 1998 15%)
Robert McCartney 4.6% (1999 6.6%; 1998 8%)
Gary McMichael 3.2% (1999 5.7%; 1998 9%)
Cedric Wilson 1.2% (1999 0.7%; 1998 - )

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Who do you think would be the best leader of the Ulster Unionist Party? (UUP supporters only)

David Trimble 75.2%
Jeffrey Donaldson 16.3%
Sir Reg Empey 4.4%
David Burnside 2%
Martin Smyth 2%

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If John Hume retired who do you think would be the best leader of the SDLP? (SDLP supporters only). Mr Mallon has since said he will not be standing again as deputy leader of the SDLP.

Seamus Mallon 41.6%
Mark Durkan 24.3%
Brid Rodgers 11.8%
Alban Maginness 7.8%
Eddie McGrady 7.8%
Alex Attwood 5.1%

By gender, age and geography:
Seamus Mallon: Male 47.2% Female 37.4%; Under 35 36.7% Over 35 44.2%; Greater Belfast 32.9 Rest of NI 45.5%

Mark Durkan: Male 19.4% Female 27.9%; Under 35 24.4% Over 35 24.2%; Greater Belfast 24.1% Rest of NI 24.4%

Brid Rodgers: Male 5.6% Female 16.3%; Under 35 10% Over 35 12.7%; Greater Belfast 2.3% Rest of NI 8%

Alban Maginness: Male 10.2% Female 6.1%; Under 35 11.1% Over 35 6.1%; Greater Belfast 13.9% Rest of NI 5.1%

Eddie McGrady: Male 9.3% Female 6.8%; Under 35 6.7% Over 35 8.5%; Greater Belfast 0% Rest of NI 11.4%

Alex Attwood: Male 6.5% Female 4.1%; Under 35 8.9% Over 35 3%; Greater Belfast 5.1% Rest of NI 5.1%

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Do think the war is over?

YES Total: 21.5%
Unionist: 11.8%
Nationalist: 32.6%
Other : 31.1%

NO Total: 78.5%
Unionist: 88.2%
Nationalist: 67.4%
Other: 68.9%

YES in June 1998: Unionists 23%; Nationalists 70%

YES in May 2000 (after a positive IRA statement): Unionists 32.5%; Nationalists 77.5%

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Do you think Northern Ireland will still be part of the United Kingdom in 2020?

YES: Total: 56.3%
Unionist: 66.9%
Nationalist: 39.8%
Other: 72.2%

NO: Total: 43.7%
Unionist: 33.1%
Nationalist: 60.2%
Other: 27.8%

YES in February 1998: Unionists 69%; Nationalists 49.8%

YES in March 1999: Unionists 61.6%; Nationalists 38.4%

YES in May 2000: Unionists 61%; Nationalists 45.1%

	Click on the links below for the main results
	Future of the Agreement
	Paramilitary ceasefires
	Northern Ireland's constitutional future
	Results in details