Republicans say IRA guns will not be bartered for the closure of army bases

The security forces, however, see things differently.

While they acknowledge the very significant reduction in IRA activity, they say its capability has not diminished.

The IRA remains intact and has not disarmed.

So the security response to the changing situation in Northern Ireland will be a cautious one.

Patrols ended

Up to now, about 3,000 soldiers have been withdrawn from the province and more than 30 military bases have been closed or demolished.

Troop levels are at their lowest point since the early 1970s, and in many parts of Northern Ireland soldiers no longer patrol in support of the Royal Ulster Constabulary.

But what is now clear is that any further significant developments will depend on the IRA's approach to decommissioning and on the security assessment of the threat posed by dissident republican factions such as the Real and Continuity IRA.

Demilitarisation, decommissioning, policing and the future stability of the new political institutions are now wrapped up in a complex negotiation.

Settling one issue is now dependent on settling them all.

It's a huge task which is concentrating the minds of the key political players involved in the latest round of intensive negotiations.

A soldier uses cutting equipment to dismantle one base

If the IRA re-engages in a significant way with General John de Chastelain's Decommissioning Body, then further demilitarisation or normalisation steps are likely.

A security base in County Londonderry and an army observation post at Newtownhamilton in south Armagh have been earmarked for closure.

And if the IRA was to go further and move to put arms beyond use, then the security forces would begin to "prioritise" their bases in the republican stronghold of south Armagh.

But republicans say IRA guns will not be bartered for the closure of army bases.

That may well be the republican position, but the nature of the current negotiations would suggest that movement on one issue will determine what is possible on another.

Those talks continue but, as yet, nothing has been settled.