 The number of heart attacks peak shortly after hot weather |
A unique health forecasting system which helped a hospital save almost half-a-million pounds in just three weeks is under threat. The Met Office 'Forecasting the Nation' project predicts likely health problems based on weather patterns.
It means hospitals can be prepared for flu outbreaks or rises in the number of heart attacks, for example, by rescheduling non-urgent operations.
Now funding for the pilot project has run out, and officials from the Met Office are to meet with the department of health to ask for more cash.
 | Participating NHS Trusts Birmingham Heartlands & Solihull Central Manchester City Hospital Ealing Hospital Good Hope Hospital Hinchingbrooke Mid Staffordshire General Hospitals Norfolk & Norwich University North Manchester North Middlesex University Nottingham City Oldham Plymouth Portsmouth Queen's Medical Centre, Nottingham Royal Berkshire & Battle Salford Royal Sheffield Teaching Hospital South Manchester University Stockport Royal West Sussex Royal Wolverhampton Trafford Healthcare United Leeds Teaching Hospitals University Hospital Birmingham Coventry and Warwickshire Waltham Forest |
The project has been running for three years, and now involves some 28 hospitals, 22 NHS Direct centres and 32 GPs. Over the first couple of years the project worked by gathering information about health problems and linking it with weather data.
Now they are in the position to make predictions based on the data which participating hospitals can use to prepare for the future.
Among the revelations thrown up by the project is that a sudden drop in temperatures leads to a rise in heart attacks a few days later and asthma problems peak after thunder.
Health bosses at the Royal Berkshire Hospital estimate the information provided by the project saved them around �400,000 this year.
A spokesperson for the Royal Berkshire and Battle Hospitals NHS Trust said: "By predicting troughs and peaks in weather-related illness and injury, this work gives us the appropriate information to respond confidently and flexibly to the immediate and anticipated weather situation.
"It helps us make best use of our services for the benefit of patient care."
The project ran out of its original �1.2m funding at the end of March, since when it has been kept going by a �100,000 infusion from the Met Office itself.
Mark Gibbs, head of health forecasting at the Met Office, said he very much hoped they could persuade the Department of Health to keep funding the project.
"We are hoping to convince them of the benefits this service can bring to the efficiency of the health service and, more importantly, to improving patient care," he said.
"Health forecasting gives us the ability to prevent admissions, for example we gave out warnings before the recent hot weather so hospitals were geared up to expect the demand."