by Simon Page BBC News Online

The war has caused a drop in visitor numbers in London

Following on from the September 11 attacks and foot-and-mouth crisis, the tourism industry faces another potential crisis in the shape of the war in Iraq. But while some potential visitors are staying away, parts of the country are benefiting as people change their travel plans.

Recent research by the Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA) suggests about 570,000 UK residents will this year swap a holiday abroad for a domestic break as a result of security fears.

At the same time, inbound tourism is falling with the top end of the market, made up of the highest spenders, all but collapsing.

Bob Cotton, chief executive of the British Hospitality Association told BBC News Online: "London is particularly weak and this has been caused as much as anything by the corporate sector falling off.

"It has got worse over the last three or four months and we've now seen this spread out to other cities in Britain.

Jobs threatened

"Conversely, the further you move away from the cities, in places like Devon, Cornwall and the Lake District, the rural areas are enjoying the best trading they've ever had.

"But in central London, 300,000 people are employed in tourism. These jobs are under pressure unless the city business picks up."

The first Gulf War (1991) and the events of 2001 had an effect on the number of foreign visitors to Britain, as shown below 1990 - 18m visitors 1991 - 17.1m 1992 - 18.5m 2000 - 25.2m 2001 - 22.8m 2002 - 24.2m

The tourism industry has become used to both world and domestic events affecting trade, particularly in terms of foreign visitors.

Elliott Frisby from the British Tourist Authority said: "We've noticed trends in foreign markets.

"The Japanese are quite easily put off flying by events like the war.

"The United States remains our most important foreign market but Japanese tourism was down by about 40% in 2001 when we had foot-and-mouth and 11 September.

"Americans are nervous about travelling in the immediate period but the strong relationship between Britain and the US helps. They look to travel to Britain more than any other European country.

"They consider Britain as their first choice destination and this is helped by a recognition of the support Britain gives to the United States, particularly in the aftermath of 11 September."

A familiar situation

On Wednesday a new body to promote British tourism was launched.

VisitBritain will effectively replace the existing Bristish Tourist Authority and the English Tourism Council.

One of its first tasks will be to launch an Englsih domestic marketing campaign to encourage people to holiday in their own country.

Rural attractions like Stonehenge are as popular as ever

A spokesman for the English Tourism Council (ETC) said: "Tourism in the UK isn't wholly dependent on inbound custom, but overseas visitors tend to be higher spenders than domestic tourists.

"In 2002, the value to Britain of tourism was �75.9bn and four-fifths of that came from domestic tourism.

"That does, though, still leave 20% of our tourist income dependent on foreign visitors.

"At times like this you do see a bit more domestic tourism. Some UK residents who are motivated by security concerns may switch their holiday plans especially from areas such as the eastern Mediterranean."

The main concern for tourism is the length of time the war continues.

"If it is as short as the 1991 Gulf War then things shouldn't be affected too much", said the ETC spokesman. "If the conflict lasts into early summer, it would have an impact on inbound tourism."

For Bob Cotton, there is a recognition that the industry is becoming all too familiar with these problems. He said: "The feeling in the industry at the moment is that we've been here before and we know how to deal with it.

"People feel its time to batten down the hatches now but prepare for when the upturn comes. The trade will come back."