Education correspondent Mike Baker considers the big issues to be addressed in the government's education White Paper - due to have been published this week but now postponed until after the summer break.

This is a peculiar time in the secondary school year.

Classrooms are half empty while many post-GCSE students are let loose on work experience.

Likely changes

More specialist colleges Bigger private sector role Focus on early teens

Year 12 are in post-AS-level trauma and Year 13 are marking time before moving on to adulthood.

Wide-eyed primary school leavers are arriving for a taste of what lies ahead in September while, for the rest, sports days and end-of-year drama productions fill the dog days of the summer term.

But at the Department for Education and Skills all is frantic activity as ministers, civil servants and policy advisers prepare to launch the government's education White Paper - which had been expected before now.

This will set out the detailed plans for the government's agenda for the next five years and, more specifically, for the forthcoming Education Bill.

Main themes

It will have huge implications for secondary schools.

Before, during and since the general election the government has spelled out that, for primary schools, the recent upheavals should now give way to consolidation.

But secondary schools have been warned: It is their turn for a "step change" now.

There are expected to be three big themes:

• increased diversity of school types
• greater involvement of the private sector
• changes to the education of 11 to 14 year olds.

Two of these are as much about "structures" as "standards" despite Labour's first term insistence that it would be all about the latter not the former.

The biggest change will be the rapid expansion of the number of specialist schools. The government target is 1,500, or about 40% of the secondary schools in England.

Rare breed

Head teachers and governing bodies have already seen which way the wind is blowing and there will be no shortage of applicants for specialist status. Indeed it may be that schools wanting to remain as generalist, neighbourhood comprehensives will be a rarity.

It may be that schools wanting to remain as generalist, neighbourhood comprehensives will be a rarity

But there will be more diversity than just the proposed seven varieties of specialist college.

There will also be more city academies. These are Labour's Mark II version of the Conservatives' city technology colleges.

Each will have outside sponsorship, specialist themes and independence from local education authorities.

There will also be more faith-based schools, with the Church of England leading the charge to establish more secondary schools linked to the churches.

More schools will receive the "beacon school" kite-mark and, now that specialist college status is being diluted by sheer numbers, there will be a new more exclusive category of "advanced specialist college".

Danger of a hierarchy

If this all comes to pass, England (for these changes are less likely to spread to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) will have one of the most diverse secondary school systems in the world.

That may be fine if it allows schools to focus on the particular talents and aptitudes of their students and if parents feel they have a genuine choice of secondary education for their children.

Parents and students are very attuned to the ups and downs of schools' fortunes

It may not be so good if these schools form a new hierarchy in which some are better funded, have better facilities and get first pick of students and staff.

There is a serious danger of this. Applicants for specialist school status must raise �50,000 of private sponsorship as the price of admission to the club.

Once inside that club they get several times that amount in extra government funding. They can (although so far most do not) choose up to 10% of their students on the basis of aptitude in the specialism on offer.

Marketplace

Parents and students are very attuned to the ups and downs of schools' fortunes. It is almost like tracking the stock-market performance of well-known companies.

Specialist schools are currently the tipsters' favourite while shares in "bog standard" comprehensives are in free fall.

We have a market in schools these days. It began with the Conservatives and their extension of parental choice and introduction of open enrolment and per-pupil funding. The effects of these markets are now being felt in most parts of the country.

Take Nottingham, for example. The city council has a problem because there is a huge surplus of secondary school places, caused in part by many students travelling out into the suburbs and beyond to more popular schools.

Even within the city of Nottingham itself there is a distinct hierarchy of schools. The Church of England secondary is twice oversubscribed as is the city technology college. Parents are voting with their children's feet.

The education authority is bowing to popular demand. Half-full schools are closing, the city technology college will expand and there is to be a new Church school.

Live by the sword ...

Now, there are two views you can take of this.

Either it shows that the market is working and responding to parental choice and school quality.

The White Paper is expected to herald a new form of private sector involvement

Or it shows the harshness of market forces as communities lose their local school and students suffer from being at a school in slow decline.

A similar pattern is evident in parts of Surrey. Here it is the magnet attraction of specialist schools which have left other schools struggling.

Take France Hill School in Camberley. It has been doing most things right. It has a nice site, is in a leafy residential area, and has been praised by Ofsted for its good teaching, motivated pupils and good management.

But France Hill is not much more than half full. Why? Because it is surrounded by a specialist technology school and a specialist languages college. Parents have flocked to these alternatives.

Under new management

With falling numbers, France Hill faced budget problems and possible closure. In a couple of weeks it will be no more. In September it will be reincarnated as Kings International College for Business and Arts.

As well as a new name and image there will be a new uniform, a full intake of new pupils and fresh management.

And this is where it gets really interesting. The new school will be managed in a partnership with a private company, 3E's Enterprises Limited.

The school remains free to students and part of the public sector school system, but its management will come from the private sector.

This public-private partnership is another central theme of the White Paper. It is certain to be the most controversial part of the government's agenda for schools.

Big questions

So far, private sector involvement has come mainly in places where the public sector had failed, with take-overs of either "failing" schools or "failing" education authorities.

The White Paper is expected to herald a new form of private sector involvement - in schools which are already doing well but which may need help in certain key areas.

One idea is that otherwise successful schools may turn to private sector outfits for help in running an under-performing department. Or they may be asked to act as consultants on a particular problem, such as recruitment of pupils or teachers.

It is a move into uncharted waters.

Some big questions will be asked about accountability, about unfair competition between schools and about what happens if private companies themselves start to feel the pinch or go under in the middle of a school contract. Who will pick up the pieces if things go wrong?

But, for now, the pendulum for schools is swinging in the direction of specialism, sponsorship, niche-marketing and private sector involvement.

In the end, the success of it all will be judged on what happens to educational standards.

But that judgement must take into account not only what happens to the winners in the new, diverse school market but also what happens to the losers.

After all - it's a clich� but true - children only get one chance at school.

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Mike Baker and the education team welcome your comments at educationnews@bbc.co.uk although cannot always answer individual e-mails.