By Mike Baker BBC News education correspondent

How much tougher is it going to be to get into university in England this year?

That is the question many students and parents will be asking after the warning from the head of the higher education funding body that the supply of new university places was failing to keep pace with rising demand.

Of course, there are many commentators out there who will be cheering: they believe it should be getting harder to win a university place.

But the fact that it will be tougher to get onto a traditional degree course in 2005 is not the result of a deliberate policy to raise entry standards. It is all about money.

Expansion

Not that university funding is being cut. In fact, universities in England are getting a funding increase of 3.1% above the rate of general inflation.

This increase - which the universities say will scarcely cover their increased costs, especially pay settlements - is supposed to fund some expansion.

According to the funding body, universities in England will be able to recruit the full-time equivalent of 5,700 more full-time first degree course and postgraduate students for this autumn.

In addition, they can take on the full-time equivalent of 11,300 students on foundation courses.

However - and here is the rub - the rise in the number of applications for places this year is already running well ahead of this.

Squeeze

The reasons for this are twofold: the growing number of 18-year-olds in the population and the rising A-level (or equivalent) pass-rate.

So this year the number of applicants to English universities is up by 9.4% or 29,834 compared to the same time last year.

While some of these will be applying for the new foundation degrees, the great majority will be seeking traditional degree courses.

Clearly almost 30,000 extra applicants trying to squeeze into about one fifth of that number of additional full degree courses equals many more disappointed people.

Of course, we may be seeing earlier-than-usual applications this year (thanks to the growth of online arrangements), so the final increase on last year may turn out to be a little lower than 30,000. Nevertheless there will still be an excess of demand over supply.

Although some of the increase in applicants is from overseas and mature students, the bulk of it is made up of English students aged under 21

These are the "birth bulge" babies of 18 years ago. Moreover that bulge is going to continue for another six years before the number of 18-year-olds in England starts to fall again.

'Tall order'

There are two groups of people who might be worried by this: the young people themselves and the government which is concerned to meet its target of getting 50% of the under-30s into university.

Medium-term funding plans suggest that by 2008, the proportion of young people will rise slightly to about 45.5%.

But that leaves a 4.5 percentage point gap still to be bridged in just two years if the government's target date of 2010 is to be met.

That is now looking like a tall order as the increase for the past four years has been just one percentage point a year.

As this year's funding allocation suggests, the government is hoping that this expansion will be led by the two-year foundation degrees.

Not only are there twice as many additional full-time equivalent places for foundation degrees than for traditional degrees, but far more of these will be taken up by students studying part-time.

So, in fact, the government is funding an increase in foundation degrees for around 15,600 students (9,900 part-time and 5,700 full-time).

It is going to be a lot tougher to get into a full degree course this year but there may be a surplus of places for foundation degrees

But in contrast to the excess of applicants over places for full degree courses, there may not even be enough students to fill these extra foundation degree places.

Ucas figures show that while there has been a big percentage rise in applications to foundation degrees, the numerical increase is only about 9,000.

But these are applications not applicants. Since each applicant can put down up to six applications, the actual number of additional students seeking a place on a foundation degree course will be less than 9,000.

Moreover, Ucas figures show that only 13,344 people in total had applied for foundation degree places at English universities by the advisory deadline of 15 January.

Even if there are some late applications to come, that suggests that not only will it be a lot easier to get onto one of these courses but there will be unfilled places.

So there is an apparent paradox: it is going to be a lot tougher to get into a full degree course this year but there may be a surplus of places for foundation degrees.

Cheaper

This does not seem to conform to a market model where the universities - as independent bodies - would wish to expand the most popular courses.

So, what is happening? Is the government trying to force more students into foundation degrees?

It would be one way of ensuring the success of this new initiative.

Politically, it would also be a cheaper way of meeting the 50% target for the proportion of young people entering higher education.

After all, the prime minister's target did not say 50% of young people achieving a full undergraduate degree.

So, if you do not make it onto the full degree course of your choice this year, but still want to go to university, you know what to do: order those foundation degree brochures.