The participation trend in recent years: 2003 figures provisional

The Department for Education and Skills estimated 86.5% of 16-year-olds stayed on in 2003. In 1994 it was 90.6%.

Separate research said the Connexions Card reward scheme - to encourage teenagers to stay on - had not worked.

An estimated 9% of 16 to 19-year-olds were claiming rewards or getting discounts on goods and services.

And those taking part tended to be the more highly qualified and "easier to reach" youngsters.

'Turning point'

"There is no significant evidence of any direct impact of the card in terms of changes in attitudes to learning," said the report for the DfES by York Consulting and Mori.

"The project has now reached a turning point.

"Recognising that some of the initial objectives are not attainable, a decision needs to be taken on whether and how to maximise and build on the positive outcomes that have been achieved."

The report said the nature of the public-private partnership arrangements behind the scheme was probably partly to blame.

And it had suffered because of a "political commitment" to getting it running in 2001-02.

It would have been better to wait and conduct more trials, the report said.

Vocational courses

The statistics on staying-on rates, being for 2003, precede the nationwide introduction of another scheme to encourage people to keep learning: weekly grants called education maintenance allowances.

There has been some success with work-based learning

But they tend to confirm Britain's relatively poor international standing - 25th out of 28 countries in the most recent study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

They cover young people in full-time or part-time education, in government supported training or receiving employer-funded or other training.

Participation in education and training among 16 to 18-year-olds as a whole was 75.1%, up a little on the previous year but down compared with 77.7% at the end 1994.

Another plank of government strategy to engage more youngsters in their learning will also take time to work through but looks promising.

This is the "increased flexibility" programme, providing those aged 14 to 16 with more work-based learning opportunities.

An evaluation of the second year of this, undertaken last spring, found the 40,000 or so pupils involved had access to a broader curriculum and were on target to achieve vocational qualifications - though the work was done before they had their results.

More than half said their course had helped them clarify their future plans, with 82% intending to continue in education or training - exceeding the 75% target.

Students' social skills and ability to work with adults appeared to have improved.

Although they were still sometimes bored with lessons, they were better behaved and liked going to school more than they had a year earlier.

The researchers said policy makers might want to take into consideration, however, that those running the courses had tended to under-estimate the cost and time involved.