Other studies have cast doubt on whether standards have risen so much

Ministers say the results - up a little this year in English and maths - are evidence of rising standards.

But in a report for the Association of Teachers and Lecturers, Professor Colin Richards casts doubt on this.

He says there is no readily available published evidence as to how far national standards have been reflected in the tests children sit.

"Therefore it is impossible to say with any certainty whether any changes in performance as 'measured' by tests reflect changes in performance against national standards," he says.

Mixed picture

His report, Standards in English Primary Schools: are they rising? says there is a great deal of confused thinking and talk about standards.

He acknowledges that studies commissioned by the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority (QCA) have suggested that "the national curriculum and its associated testing regime have been successful in 'levering up' standards."

But other research tracking children's performance in English and maths has not shown the same sort of rises as the national test results.

Prof Richards, a former Ofsted inspector, finds it odd that the judgements inspectors are required to make about schools have not been presented as a national picture to compare with the test results.

He says Ofsted has published no inspection evidence on either national standards or performance in relation to those standards.

"It has simply relied on reporting national test data."

Confidence

He argues that there is a need for a national body to address all these issues.

This would have to be formed from scratch "since none of the official agencies, including the QCA and Ofsted, currently enjoys professional confidence in the guardianship of national standards."

But the Department for Education and Skills said all the evidence from independent evaluation was that "test standards" were being maintained.

A spokeswoman said: "This is why we have an independent test and exams regulator, the QCA, to ensure the maintenance of standards year on year.

"That evidence is supported by Ofsted's independent evaluations and by international benchmark evidence. We can be confident that standards are high and rising."

Ongoing dialogue

In February a report from the official watchdog, the Statistics Commission, triggered an acrimonious exchange with the Department for Education and Skills.

It said the improvement seen in the series of test results between 1995 and 2000 "substantially overstates the improvement in standards in English primary schools".

The Education Secretary, Ruth Kelly, totally rejected this and said her department had written to demand that the commission retract its report.

But the commission's chief executive, Richard Alldritt, told the BBC News website he had no intention of doing so.

It was noteworthy that the department's statisticians had never issued their own commentary on the results - there had been only ministerial statements and the like.

He had suggested they should do so, he said, but appreciated this would take some time.

He had a meeting coming up in the next few weeks with the department's head of statistics.

"I think we have probably agreed to stop slagging each other off, as it were, for want of another phrase," he said.

"But we stick to our view that the time series is potentially misleading."