Tony Higgins, the Chief Executive of the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (Ucas), was speaking at a conference to discuss the findings of a major survey of the way students choose universities.

The study, carried out by the Institute for Employment Studies for a variety of higher education organisations, was published by the Committee of Vice Chancellors and Principals.

Mr Higgins said Ucas had itself noticed a trend - identified in the survey - for more students to be admitted to a university or college near to where they live.

College mergers

"If demand for higher education is to be satisfied locally then how will students get to university who live in, say, Swindon, Gloucester, Peterborough, Ipswich, Shrewsbury or Carlisle?" he asked.

Tony Higgins: Predictions

He predicted mergers of further education colleges - a development that was being encouraged by funding bodies.

"So, perhaps in 10 or 15 years' time somebody will say: 'Isn't that interesting? We have just recreated the polytechnics all over again'," he said.

"I expect that in the next century, these new polytechnics will then be translated into universities. What we will have done will have been to create a system of community colleges, rather similar to those operating in the United States."

Mix of study

Mr Higgins said the drive to widen participation in higher education by those from non-traditional backgrounds, and to broaden the 16 to 19 curriculum, could lead to funding being targeted on students who fitted those aims.

"Perhaps that would lead to some institutions, which traditionally take in students with very high level A level grades in similar subjects, to be penalised," he suggested.

Institutions which insisted on taking candidates with three related A levels might then have to attract more private funding - and become privatised universities.

Mr Higgins said there was also a trend towards a greater mix of types of study, driven in part by cost - perhaps taking breaks to work full-time.