By Mike Baker BBC education correspondent

Are we heading for another school budgets crisis in England?

Very soon the government will announce a minimum funding increase for every pupil in every school.

But will that be enough to avoid a repeat of this year's problems?

There is a huge amount at stake. Many schools have dipped into their financial reserves or used the money set aside for building repairs just to make ends meet this year.

They were encouraged to do this by the government. These schools are now, in effect, living on credit.

The amounts are considerable. In Hertfordshire they say they have spent �10m from their reserves. In Surrey they have removed �12m.

The government has said it will not be able to reimburse this spending.

Schools will only be able to re-fill their "rainy day" savings accounts if next year's funding settlement leaves them a surplus on their running costs.

Turbulent year

But there is one very alarming fact about next year's prospects.

According to the Department for Education's permanent secretary, David Normington, the increase in spending for the coming year is considerably less than last year's increase.

When he appeared before the Commons education select committee a few months ago, Mr Normington, agreed that this has been "a very turbulent year".

When asked if further turbulence would be avoided he commented: "I am not saying it will be alright next year".

One can understand the government's nervousness. They didn't really see last year's crisis until just before it slammed into them.

So how can they ensure that the minimum funding increase they announce for schools will actually deliver a corresponding increase after it has filtered all the way through the complex funding mechanisms before finally reaching individual school budgets?

After all, last year the government worked on the basis that no school would get a funding increase of less than 8% in cash terms. This sounded generous.

Yet, as we now know, there have been redundancies and post-closures, even if the government, the unions and independent experts cannot agree on just how many teachers have been lost.

A key factor, of course, will be what happens to teachers' pay. The government wants a pay rise of no more than 2.5% a year for the next two and a half years.

Schools made cutbacks or spent savings

The National Union of Teachers has just demanded 10% or more. Since some 80% of schools' costs are dedicated to salaries, the decision of the independent pay review body will be crucial.

The government needs them to keep a lid on pay rises.

No wonder Education Secretary Charles Clarke said the NUT claim was "unrealistic and unreasonable".

The government is making some changes to next year's arrangements to try to head-off disaster.

For a start, they are reversing one of the changes that contributed heavily to last years problems.

This was the decision to switch money from the standards fund, which went directly to schools for specific projects, into the general funding formula, which is distributed to schools more evenly via the local councils.

Reversing this planned change for next year will put �400m back into the standards fund. This may help but it is not a panacea. This is not 'new' money; it is just re-routed funds.

Unbelievably complex

The government also hopes that settling both the pay rise and the funding allocation earlier in the year will help councils and schools to plan better.

While this should help it does not, in itself, provide any extra money.

After last year's problems, Mr Normington acknowledged that it had not been possible to model the impact of the funding settlement on individual schools.

This is presumably still the case. No-one could deny that the way the money travels from central government to Town Hall and then on to schools is unbelievably complex.

But if this is the case, it is hard to see how the 'minimum guarantee' which the government is about to deliver can really be any guarantee at all.

Wishing a minimum per pupil increase for all schools is one thing; delivering it is another.