Great Train Robbery: A classic planners' job

Given what we already know about the two robberies and what we can assume - but what the police do not want us to know - we are likely to be dealing with two groups of planners.

That having been said, the level of planning varies according to two factors - the characters of the robbers involved and the nature of the target itself.

For example, commercial robberies from banks, building societies, post offices or cash-in-transit vans are more likely to have been planned.

The robbers will have taken care to disguise themselves, de-activate security cameras, be armed, wear gloves, and to have visited the premises where the robbery would take place, or the route that the van would take.

We know, for example, that the robbers who stole $23 million from the Boston office of Brinks Incorporated in the 1970s made five trial runs before committing the robbery.

Choosing a target

But why Heathrow - which most would see as extraordinarily secure, especially after the events of September 11th, and a warehouse owned by the Frans Maas Company?

The most recent research on this subject - which has the advantage of actually asking robbers themselves how they go about choosing their targets - suggests there are probably four relevant factors after the "planning stage", which is itself subject to wide time variations.

• First, a target is chosen based on the levels of security that exist, and which will need to be overcome.

• Part of this decision is based on the second factor - the location of the target. For example, a target near major roads which will facilitate escape would be preferable to an isolated target which could be surrounded by police.

• Thirdly, a target might be chosen because it is known to the robber, either because he has worked there in the past, or has a contact still working there - the aptly named inside job.

• Finally, and related to this last point a target might also be chosen because the robber wants to get revenge on the owner of the target, for a range of reasons, including being badly dealt with whilst employed there.

Thus the choice of target is quite complicated if the robbers are "planners", but their motivation is much simpler - they do it for the money.

'High life'

A variety of criminological research over a period of time is remarkably consistent on this point, and as such we can say with certainty that robberies are committed for financial reasons.

Professor Wilson: "Robbers have simple motivation - money"

The proceeds of robberies can be used to feed drug, gambling or alcohol habits, or simply to facilitate a "high life".

Interestingly, some robbers claimed the financial reason which prompted the robbery was simply to pay off debts, but all of that changed after the robbery when the money got spent on luxuries rather than necessities.

In all of this we are helped by some good, empirical research conducted with robbers whilst they were in custody.