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Tuesday, 26 December, 2000, 13:48 GMT
Mixed day for forecasters

The perennial question: will it snow for Christmas? BBC News Online sought the advice of the UK's top amateur meteorologists and here's how their forecasts matched up to the real weather.

If the British really do love nothing better than talking about the weather, undoubtedly the most popular meteorological debate must be: "Will we have a white Christmas?"

Bing Crosby
White Christmas? Keep dreaming, Bing
As with so much about the UK weather, there is no conclusive answer. From Aberdeen in Scotland to Bristol in the south-west, snow did indeed fall.

However, for 25 December 2000 to qualify as a bona fide, country-wide "White" Christmas, a snowflake (or "solid precipitation") would have had to land on the roof of every Meteorological Office site in the UK.

Sorry, Bing Crosby. Close, but no cigar.

In the run-up to the big day, BBC News Online asked a battery of "amateur" weathermen - and a "professional" forecaster - to give their expert opinions on what Christmas would bring.

Here's how they did.


Bill Foggitt

Bill Foggitt
"The dog says it'll be chilly."
Yorkshireman Bill Foggitt, 87, comes from a long line of amateur weathermen, and has been looking to his trusty aneroid barometer for the best part of 70 years.

For his forecasts, Mr Foggitt also consults meteorological records kept by his family since 1881, monitors insect activity and watches the behaviour of his cat, "Blackie".

Mr Foggitt's Christmas forecast: A drop in temperatures and high winds.

What actually happened: "Chilly" was the general theme of the day, with temperatures dropping by a degree or two on those of Christmas Eve.

Winds also picked up, with the "light" and "moderate" air currents of 24 December turning into a "brisk" north-easterly for much of the country.


Frank Walker

Children play in snow at Catterick on Christmas Day
"Snow, just like 1903, 1904 and 1906."
Since picking up a book called Natural Law and Terrestrial Phenomena in the late 1920s, Frank Walker has been hooked on weather forecasting.

Putting great stock in finding common patterns between historical records and today's weather, 89-year-old Mr Walker says late 2000 is comparable to the years of 1903, 1904 and 1906.

Mr Walkers' Christmas forecast: "I predicted [a white Christmas for Scotland] back in October and I'm sticking to it," said the Scot defiantly.

What actually happened: The south-east of England may have remained entirely snow-free, but it was the exception.

While snowploughs were called out in the Scottish Highlands, other areas as far south as Bristol experienced a lighter dusting of snow.


Bill Tanton

William Hague with a pint of beer
"Christmas mild?!? I'll have a pint of it, please."
Claiming an impressive 75% success rate, Bill Tanton bases his three-month predictions on air pressure and wind observations made in the first few days of each season.

Unfortunately, with autumn only ending on 21 December, Mr Tanton was unable to make a certain forecast for Christmas Day.

Mr Tanton's Christmas "opinion": Mild, wet and windy weather.

What actually happened: Windy, granted. Wettish, in a way. But mild?

The first days of winter have seen a drop in temperatures. The Met Office is even warning that, with the "wind chill factor" included, it could feel like minus six degrees in parts of the UK.


Terry Scholey

Snow in Yorkshire
"I'm ready for that rain, if it comes."
In his own words "probably one of the best weathermen in the country", Terry Scholey bases his long-range forecasts on satellite images and astrophysics.

A "professional" meteorologist, Mr Scholey runs a company offering 30-day weather predictions.

Mr Scholey's Christmas forecast: "It's going to be horrendous," he told BBC News Online, warning of heavy rainfall, storms and high winds.

What actually happened: Wintry showers and blustery winds dogged much of the country over 25 December but, thankfully, Mr Scholey's heavy rains and storms have yet to arrive.

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See also:

13 Dec 00 | UK
Is it going to reindeer?
26 Dec 00 | Scotland
Games off as snow and ice bite
13 Dec 00 | Americas
A Caribbean White Christmas
Links to more UK stories are at the foot of the page.


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