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Last Updated: Monday, 27 September, 2004, 15:21 GMT 16:21 UK
Pakistan's two-pronged terror strategy

By Zaffar Abbas
BBC correspondent in Islamabad

Pakistani troops
The army stands by its offensives in South Waziristan
The death in a gun battle of one of Pakistan's top Islamic extremists and suspected al-Qaeda linchpin, Amjad Farooqi, has come as a great relief to the country's security and intelligence agencies.

He was described as the master planner of the assassination attempts on President Pervez Musharraf in December last year.

But the fact that such a high-profile militant was found hiding in the country's southern Sindh province, far from the supposed militant stronghold of South Waziristan, has raised fresh questions about the strength of the militants' foothold in Pakistan.

Indeed, almost all the leading al-Qaeda suspects and their local associates killed or arrested in the past two years were found in major Pakistani cities rather than in the tribal region that borders Afghanistan.

Vigilant

Does this mean the continuing security operation against al-Qaeda suspects and their local tribal supporters in South Waziristan was misconceived?

Should authorities have been concentrating more on the major cities of Punjab and Sindh?

PAKISTAN'S KEY ARRESTS
Ramzi Binalshibh (left) and Omar Saeed Sheikh
Omar Saeed Sheikh, above right, February 2002
Abu Zubaydah, Faisalabad, March 2002
Ramzi Binalshibh, Karachi, above left, September 2002
Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Rawalpindi, March 2003
Naeem Noor Khan, Lahore, July 2004
Khalfan Ghailani, July 2004, Gujrat

Pakistan security officials do not agree.

According to a senior security official, Pakistani intelligence has been following a two-pronged strategy to disperse or eliminate foreign and local militants from Waziristan while hunting down leading al-Qaeda figures in mainland Pakistan.

"The situation in Waziristan", he said, "is more complex than in the rest of the country."

The official said most people believed it was in the mountainous regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan that Osama Bin Laden and his Arab associates might be hiding, so the security forces had to remain vigilant there.

In addition, a large number of Taleban fighters, Chechens and Uzbeks have been using the territory to carry out insurgent activities in their own countries. Their presence was regarded as a threat to Pakistan's own security.

In recent months, the face of Islamic militancy has undergone a dramatic change in Pakistan.

The intelligence agencies have noticed a significant movement out of Pakistan of Islamic militants of Middle Eastern origin.

However, they say this does not mean Pakistan is being abandoned as an al-Qaeda stronghold.

Arab militants have simply found Iraq a more fertile ground, where they can melt away easily and have Americans and other Westerners as easy targets, officials suggest.

Splinter groups

So apart from some key al-Qaeda figures, Pakistan's focus has been on the large number of militants from regional neighbours.

Officials believe Chechen militants, and to some extent Uzbeks, after being deprived of sanctuary in Taleban-controlled Afghanistan, have turned to Pakistan.

Nawabshah
Farooqi's hideout in Nawabshah - not a recognised militant base

Initially Pakistani tried to persuade them to return home to fight the regimes there.

Once they refused, and continued to use tribal areas as bases, a Pakistani military operation was started to weed them out.

And officials say that even though there is resistance from local tribes, this operation has successfully dispersed most of the foreign militants.

However, the arrest of prominent Islamic militants elsewhere in Pakistan shows the level of sympathy fostered among local religious groups, who are more than willing to provide shelter.

Of late, several splinter groups have also surfaced which may not be directly linked to al-Qaeda but certainly draw their inspiration from Osama Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahri.

One such group, Jundhallah, was believed to be involved in a series of attacks in Karachi.

The recent arrest of its top leadership has brought relative peace in the country's biggest city.

Similarly, the break-up of a sectarian gang in Quetta, Balochistan province, has improved the situation there.

But experts in Pakistan's militant politics say there is no room for complacency.

They say as long as the situation in Afghanistan and Iraq remains volatile, Pakistan may continue to see the emergence of extremist groups.

For many of them, the prime target remains President Pervez Musharraf.

He is regarded by the extremists as a lackey of the Americans.

But with the president guarded by an army of commandos, the militants have often turned towards other, relatively softer targets.

No one can say with certainty to what extent the militancy has been brought under control or when the next group will emerge to strike.


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