When Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee climbed up the steps onto the platform at Srinagar in Kashmir on 18 April to address the large crowd that had gathered, he knew he was taking a huge risk.
 India and Pakistan disagree over a solution to the Kashmir issue |
Tucked into his speech was the offer of the "hand of friendship" to Pakistan.
He did not know how Pakistan would react; he did not know how many of his own government would react, they had not been told about this dramatic gesture.
It has been described by sources in the American embassy in Delhi as an "act of statesmanship" and a "huge gamble". But it is a gamble that has paid off - so far.
Vajpayee has transformed the political landscape in South Asia, and when he arrives the American Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, will do the diplomatic equivalent of patting the Indian prime minister heartily on the back.
But this is only the start of what will be a long process towards reconciliation and as more than 50 years of history have shown it could be blown off course very easily.
What it has done is to free diplomatic relations from being hostage to militant activity.
India and Pakistan have teetered close to conflict for the past 17 months (since the attack on the Indian Parliament in Delhi), with the threat of an atrocity in Kashmir or elsewhere waiting to push them over the edge.
Now that a process has begun, Vajpayee and others can claim that any attack is an attempt to thwart peace moves.
Tit for tat
India will want to proceed down the path towards a Kashmir resolution at a very slow and steady pace.
Led by America, the international community will point out that while India and Pakistan differ irreconcilably over any sort of final solution to Kashmir, it is the process that is important.
Tit-for-tat diplomatic moves by leaders of both countries, incremental steps in the right direction, are what is needed.
Certainly the last thing Prime Minister Vajpayee wants is a headlong rush towards a summit.
The failure of the Agra experience two years ago, when real hopes for a Kashmir solution were dashed on the rocks of a bungled meeting between Vajpayee and the Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, is still a painful memory.
Novel strategy
Richard Armitage will try to lend America's support to what has started.
America will not try to claim credit for the past few weeks. Since they were caught by surprise it would be disingenuous to do so.
But clear American support may help Vajpayee to head off elements in his own BJP party, the leading member of the coalition government in India, who revel in attacking Pakistan.
It remains to be seen if there is electoral dividend in Prime Minister Vajpayee's peace initiative.
Recent evidence at the polls shows that one of the BJP's best strategies has been to whip up anti-Pakistan feeling in India's Hindu majority.
The BJP as peacemakers - a novel strategy maybe for the general election next year.
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President Musharraf gave me absolute assurance that there was nothing happening across the Line of Control 
