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Last Updated: Tuesday, 6 May, 2003, 01:55 GMT 02:55 UK
India-Pakistan: The US 'hand'

By Jon Leyne
BBC State Department correspondent

Many in India and Pakistan suspect the hidden hand of the United States, in the recent warming of relations between their two countries.

Not that there is much evidence to back the idea. But there is no doubt the United States has a big interest in better ties between these two historic enemies.

Already the Secretary of State, Colin Powell, has spoken with both sides on the phone.

According to some accounts, he urged them to resume contact, although that analysis is denied by the Indians who insist they launched their initiative quite independently.

Mr Powell's deputy, Richard Armitage, is on his way to the region. He stops in London on Tuesday before going on to Pakistan, Afghanistan and India later in the week.

"I don't want to leave the impression that we are in the role of mediator," Mr Armitage told the BBC before he left Washington. "Our job is to keep a congenial atmosphere."

Indian soldiers in Kashmir
There have been a series of attacks in Kashmir recently
Certainly it is a delicate path Mr Armitage is now treading.

India has insisted it does not want international mediation in the Kashmir dispute.

Pakistan would like just that - but does not seem to have anything to offer, beyond its maximalist demand for a referendum on the future of the disputed province.

So perhaps the State Department's gentle advice may be behind the more cautious approach now being taken by both sides.

Rather than rush into an ill-prepared summit as they did in 2001, there seems a willingness to build more gradual diplomatic progress.

Treading carefully

Last year, Mr Armitage helped to defuse the crisis that nearly brought these nuclear armed neighbours to war.

The crucial issue was the alleged support provided by Pakistan for Kashmiri militants. Mr Armitage said he had received assurances from President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan that infiltration across the Line of Control - the ceasefire line in Kashmir - would be ended.

"We are satisfied that President Musharraf is a man of his word," said Mr Armitage then.

I don't want to leave the impression that we are in the role of mediator
Richard Armitage
US Deputy Secretary of State
Now the Americans are being more cautious, refusing to issue a "report card" on President Musharraf's efforts, at least publicly.

With troubles at home, the Pakistani leader needs the support of the United States.

That gives Mr Armitage significant leverage.

But Washington also needs President Musharraf's support in the war on terror.

In theory, the Americans have less power in India. Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee is vulnerable to the hardliners, both inside and outside his government.

But India is also enjoying some of the warmest relations with the United States since independence.

No plan, just a warning

So Mr Armitage's strategy is to take it gently.

He is not going in with a big plan for the future, he said.

And while he has welcomed Pakistan's offer to bargain away its nuclear capacity, he said "we have to keep our appetites under control".

In everybody's mind, as well, is the new world created by America's victory in Iraq.

President George W Bush, in his victory speech last week, warned regimes with weapons of mass destruction and ties to terrorist groups, they had better look out.

There are those in the Indian Government who think that description fits Pakistan fairly neatly.

Mr Armitage will be telling the Indian and Pakistani Governments that is not how Washington sees it at all.

The Bush administration may not have the energy to launch a major drive for a settlement in Kashmir.

But it is not prepared, either, to let these two countries slip carelessly into war.



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