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Tuesday, 16 April, 2002, 09:51 GMT 10:51 UK
Analysis: BJP's power politics
PM Vajpayee and LK Advani
Recent poll setbacks have forced a rethink
test hellotest
By Adam Mynott
BBC South Asia correspondent
line

India's next general elections are not due for two years but already political horse-trading and jockeying for position has begun.

There are more than 20 parties in the ruling National Democratic Alliance led by the BJP.

Many of the parties are very small but membership of the governing coalition has lent them authority and, in some cases, power beyond their wildest dreams.

Now with the BJP clearly losing the affection of the voters, the coalition partners are beginning to wonder which course they should be taking in order to try to cling on.

Hardline push

The BJP's electoral fortunes took a nosedive at state elections earlier this year, where among other disasters it lost control of the huge northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh.

Narendra Modi
Narendra Modi: Seeking fresh mandate
The consequence of those results is that the BJP has been pushed down an even more hardline Hindu nationalist path.

Some in the BJP look at the elections and conclude that the moderate approach taken by the prime minister has not worked.

There is pressure now to explore whether more right-wing Hindu policies will win the support of India's huge Hindu majority.

And it is this which lies behind the refusal of the BJP to sack or even condemn the way that the Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat, has handled the riots which have raged on and off through his state for the past several weeks.

Gujarat poll

Mr Modi is from the hardline wing of the party, and the hardliners have the power.

Bodies covered with blankets
The violence led to criticism from coalition partners
They don't want to see one of their persuasion forced out of office by what they see as ranting from the opposition and political manoeuvring by some members of the coalition.

Mr Modi wants to hold a snap election in Gujarat to exploit Hindu resentment that has been stirred up against Muslim neighbours.

Politics can be a dirty business.

Several member parties of the NDA have been made very uneasy by what's been going.

The regional Telugu Desam Party based in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh threatened to blow a hole in the NDA's majority in the lower house of parliament, by withdrawing from the alliance.

But at the 11th hour it suddenly performed a smart U-turn.

Political deals

At meetings over the weekend it said the issue had not even been discussed, even it was the sole topic of conversation outside the meetings.

The party said it would still press for the sacking of Modi and try to thwart plans to hold a quick election in Gujarat, but it would pursue those ambitions via parliament.

During 48 hours of politicking, Chandrababu Naidu, the leader of the TDP could be seen with his mobile phone clamped to his ear, apparently taking calls from senior members of the BJP and others.

We don't yet know what deals have been made. But deal-making is in the air.

India is proud of its secular political tradition, what troubles the TDP and other parties in the coalition is that that is being sacrificed by the BJP on the altar of political expediency.

See also:

12 Apr 02 | South Asia
Analysis: BJP's Gujarat tactics
12 Apr 02 | South Asia
BJP stands by Gujarat chief
24 Feb 02 | South Asia
BJP setback in Indian polls
25 Feb 02 | South Asia
Analysis: India's vulnerable BJP
24 Mar 02 | South Asia
Rights panel censures Gujarat
07 Jan 02 | South Asia
Profile: Atal Behari Vajpayee
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