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Friday, 25 January, 2002, 15:05 GMT
Analysis: India's missile fears
Ghauri missile
Pakistan may have the edge in the missile stakes
By BBC South Asia analyst Mahmud Ali

Ballistic missiles are almost impossible to defend against and any country willing to spend large sums of money on them could theoretically build an unstoppable offensive force.


Indian strategists would be looking for missiles of comparable characteristics [to Pakistan's] to main effective deterrence

It is widely assumed that India considers both China and Pakistan as such adversaries because they have ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads.

So it would be reasonable to assume that Indian ballistic missiles would be aimed at targets in these two countries.

India is known to have two types of ballistic missiles - the Prithvi and the Agni.

Missile ranges
Prithvi I: 150 km
Prithvi II: 250 km
Prithvi III: 350 km
Agni I: 1,500
Agni II: 2,500 km

A longer-range version of the Agni with a range of around 3,700 km is believed to be on the drawing board.

Targeting Pakistan

Analysts assume that the Prithvi would be used against Pakistan and the Agni against China.

Shahin missile
The solid-fuelled Shahin: Quicker off the mark
This is why it is curious that in the latest test, an Agni missile was aimed at a target less than 700 km away.

It is not clear if this is a new version of the Agni that no-one knew about.

And it raises the question of why India would deliberately reduce the range of a missile that clearly could go much further.

Fuel problem

The answer may lie in the difficulties Indian forces face with the liquid-fuelled Prithvi.

The propellants are so unstable and inflammable that they have to be mixed before the missile is actually launched.

The Prithvi is therefore exposed to potential attack for a long time before it is put to use.

But Pakistani forces have access to the solid-fuelled Hatf and Shahin missiles, which are must quicker to launch.

Indian strategists would be looking for missiles of comparable characteristics to main effective deterrence.

Now that Delhi has demonstrated its capability with a solid-fuelled shorter-range missile, deterrence may have actually been strengthened.

However, to recoup its advantage, Pakistan could begin to further improve its own missiles, prompting a whole new missile race.

See also:

16 Dec 01 | South Asia
India and Pakistan: Tense neighbours
02 May 00 | World
The world's nuclear arsenal
20 Mar 00 | South Asia
South Asia's nuclear race
28 Dec 01 | South Asia
South Asia's high nuclear stakes
29 Feb 00 | South Asia
India's growing defence costs
Links to more South Asia stories are at the foot of the page.


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