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| Wednesday, 4 July, 2001, 11:15 GMT 12:15 UK India and Pakistan: The Military balance ![]() India sees itself as a rising regional power By Defence Correspondent Jonathan Marcus In straight numerical terms of population, economic might, military manpower and equipment it is almost meaningless to speak about an India-Pakistan balance. "Imbalance" would be a more appropriate term since India dominates in every respect.
India sees itself as a rising regional actor, and it sees military power as one element in this process. As any aspiring regional player must do it looks around for potential partners and potential enemies. China too has growing regional ambitions. The two countries need not be enemies, but clearly India's military planners must have at least one eye on China as they draw up their own modernisation proposals. Pakistan is in an altogether different position. It seeks to provide itself with the military means to deter any pressure from India. It cannot match India man-for-man or gun-for-gun. But as it modernises its armed forces, it can seek to invest in those technologies that maximise its capabilities and take an effective toll against any enemy. India modernises India's broader strategic goals mean that it is pursuing an ambitious modernisation programme across all of its armed services.
The army is destined to get new tanks and new artillery. And the navy hopes to deploy new Russian-built warships, along with home-constructed vessels, new aircraft carriers and new submarines. The plan is to spend some $95bn over the next 15 years. How far these plans actually come to fruition will depend both on economics and upon potential suppliers. India also has huge maintenance problems, in part due to the poor supply of spares from Russia but also to inadequate local servicing facilities. India is eager to boost its own impressive arms industry but for the foreseeable future, many "big ticket" items will come from abroad. Russian supplies Russia is still the principal source of advance weaponry and looks set to continue in this role.
India could have a joint role in developing a new Russian fighter aircraft and an upgraded transport plane. Interestingly, India is interested in Russian air defence systems as well, with persistent reports that India's long-term aim is to deploy an anti-ballistic missile system of its own, perhaps based upon the Russian S-300VM system. It's not surprising then that India has responded in generally positive terms to US President George Bush's proposals for limited missile defence. India is also developing a close and little-reported relationship with Israel whose own arms industry has much to offer in terms of cutting-edge technology, especially in fields like unmanned reconnaissance aircraft and air-launched munitions. India's rise is acknowledged in Washington and there is a lot of talk about a potential US-Indian strategic partnership, though nuclear-proliferation issues continue to dog relations. China helps Pakistan In the face of India's growing military arsenal, Pakistan is seeking to modernise its forces. Clearly, it has put a good deal of effort into the nuclear and missile fields - areas where it can at least offer some credible deterrent against a potential threat. China remains Pakistan's principal arms supplier, though Pakistan's purchases are modest in comparison to India's.
Pakistan also gets small amounts of sophisticated weaponry from France. In the past year it has taken delivery of a further eight upgraded Mirage III and Mirage V combat aircraft. France is also supplying Pakistan with new, badly needed, diesel submarines. The first was commissioned in late 1999, with two more being built under licence in Karachi. Pakistan is also eager to diversify its arms purchases - its bought battle tanks from Ukraine and is reportedly exploring the possibility of starting local production of an upgraded version known as the Al Khalid. This is a priority since India recently signed a deal to buy over 300 Russian T-90 tanks. But overall India's conventional dominance is something that Pakistan cannot match. Its essential policy is to have sufficient forces to inflict heavy casualties on any attacker in the event of a war, while relying upon its nuclear forces to deter any conflict in the first place. | See also: Internet links: The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites Top South Asia stories now: Links to more South Asia stories are at the foot of the page. | ||||||||||||
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