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| Wednesday, 9 January, 2002, 12:06 GMT Earth granted reprieve ![]() Theory predicts that the Sun will expand By BBC News Online's Helen Briggs The Earth has been granted a reprieve. Astronomers believe the planet may now escape being swallowed up when the Sun dies in about 7.5 billion years' time. The new calculations actually extend the length of time the Earth will be habitable by 200 million years.
Dr Robert Smith, Reader in Astronomy at the University of Sussex, said: "We had better get used to the idea that we shall need to build our own survival capsules - the planets are simply too far apart for planet-hopping to be a viable solution. "Perhaps this is the ultimate justification for developing an International Space Station." Fuel crisis Solar evolution theory predicts that our star will eventually run out of fuel. As it does so, it will expand to an enormous size, becoming what is known as a red giant.
But the Sussex team thinks the figures are wrong. According to new calculations, the orbit of the Earth will increase slightly beyond the outer atmosphere of the red giant, as its gravitational pull weakens. If this is the case, the Earth will escape destruction - although its surface will be charred. "Previous calculations suggested that the Earth will be vaporised by being swallowed up by the Sun," Dr Smith told BBC News Online. "Our calculations show that the Earth will survive as a body but it will still be lifeless because it will get so hot that nothing will be able to survive on its surface." Text book dilemma The new figures are based on theoretical calculations checked against data from real stars.
Dr Smith told BBC News Online: "One effect of the calculations is that we may have 200 million years longer than previous people have thought." Other scientists are less optimistic. Professor James Kasting, a geoscientist at Pennsylvania State University, US, believes water on Earth will boil away in about one billion years' time, spelling doom for the planet. He told BBC News Online: "The story for life on Earth is long over by the time the Sun becomes a red giant. "The question of what happens 6-7 billion years from now is interesting from an academic point of view but that's not when life will end." The new calculations raise another concern, albeit more mundane. "The text books will have to be slightly changed because we no longer think that the Earth will be swallowed up by the Sun but it will be frazzled to a cinder," said Dr Smith. | See also: Internet links: The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites Top Sci/Tech stories now: Links to more Sci/Tech stories are at the foot of the page. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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