US utilities now face carbon curbs

"Now the new head of the Environmental Protection Agency, Christie Todd Whitman, has said that climate change is a serious issue which concerns the President, and that they will regulate the utilities' CO2 emissions.

"There aren't any details yet on things like the stringency of the controls, but this is the first time that an administration has proposed regulating CO2.

"So it is an important step. The chances of real action are much greater now than they were four years ago.

"There's an enormous amount of activity on an issue you would not have expected either from the campaign, or from Bush's own background," Ms Claussen said.

"There's no question that Christie Todd Whitman and Paul O'Neill, the treasury secretary, believe climate change is a problem and that we have to act.

Low expectations

"Colin Powell, the secretary of state, and the national security adviser Condoleeza Rice both understand the international dynamics, and want to avoid any problems with the Europeans."

Talks on ratifying the international climate agreement, the Kyoto Protocol, broke down in The Hague last November after US and European Union negotiators were unable to bridge the deep divide that separated them.

Things fell apart in The Hague

The talks are due to resume in the German city of Bonn in July, but Ms Claussen holds out little hope they will achieve success.

"During the election campaign Bush said he didn't support the protocol," she explained. "And he's been very careful so far not to go back on anything he said during the campaign.

"The administration is in the midst of a policy review, which includes Kyoto, so it would be premature to say what its policy will be. It may decide simply that it dislikes some parts of the protocol.

Knock to morale

"I think the odds on Bonn reaching an agreement to ratify the protocol are small. The administration will go there intending to start a process, not to end one.

"It would be a mistake to have high expectations of Bonn. People I've talked to in London think it's going to be extremely difficult to get agreement there.

"But if it fails, I am not sure the Kyoto process could take another setback like The Hague.

"You have to have some kind of global process. But what really counts is what governments do at home.

"We don't have the luxury of waiting 20 years for an agreement. We have to start moving now on emissions cuts and technologies, and now means now.

"And the Bush team is talking about real reductions. My goodness! Isn't that refreshing?"