There is, despite appearances and difficulties, an exit strategy for Iraq. Many Iraqis resent the presence of occupying Western troops |
It consists of setting up political structures, drawing up a new constitution, holding elections and then hoping that the result will be a Western friendly and oil-rich government in Baghdad. If it is, the next stage should be easy.
The US will reach an understanding with the new government (perhaps with some kind of defence pact) and its troops will depart.
 |  There is a long way to go  |
If it is hostile, the Americans will probably have to leave anyway. But it could be messy. Worrying developments
All this, on paper, could take a year or two.
In reality, the pressure might well be on for an early withdrawal.
If Iraqis get impatient, that might happen.
 Coalition troops have to be on guard around the clock |
But it is all proving to be rather slow so far.
By now it had been hoped that a consultative council of Iraqis would be in place.
The lack of an indigenous element in the government is obviously felt among the people. So too is the lack of basic facilities.
But these take time to develop.
And the development of an armed Iraqi opposition to the occupation forces is deeply worrying.
Daunting challenge
Paul Bremer, the former US diplomat who heads the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), told British Channel 4 News on Wednesday that he expected that a city council for Baghdad would be set up within two weeks.
| BRITISH TROOPS UNDER FIRE Tuesday 0730 BST: Two British vehicles attacked on patrol in Majar al-Kabir by Iraqi gunmen who injure one soldier. A Chinook arrives in support and a further seven paratroopers are injured 1200 BST: Six military policemen found dead at police station in the same town |
Mr Bremer said that the national consultative council would follow which would organise a constitutional conference in July and that would begin the work of drawing up a new constitution.
The national council will have to broadly reflect the various power blocks in Iraq - the Sunnis who were the basis of Saddam Hussein's power, the Shias who are the majority, and the Kurds who have a well defined culture of their own in the north.
There are also the exiles who have returned expected a share of the spoils.
A new constitution will have to ensure the territorial integrity of Iraq.
This will be insisted on internationally despite the fact that Iraq was formed by the British out of the remnants of three provinces of the Ottoman empire.
Lines were drawn on maps of the desert, incorporating very different peoples in one country.
They will have to stay in one country and that means some kind of federal structure to allow for regional differences.
It will be an extremely hard task.
Iraqi Nelson Mandela?
Democracy has not had a good record in the Middle East. And yet it has prospered elsewhere, especially in the former Soviet bloc, so maybe it has a chance in Iraq, too.
US Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said the other day that it used to be said of Korea that democracy had no chance there either.
Part of the core thinking of people like him in the Bush administration is that Iraq should lead the way in democratising the Middle East.
What the current governance of Iraq lacks at the moment is leadership.
Mr Bremer is regarded as a great improvement on the retired General Jay Garner who was sent home very early on.
But even Mr Bremer lacks the stature of a General Douglas MacArthur who ruled Japan and put it on its feet between 1945 and 1951.
He is basically a diplomat who worked for years in the undergrowth of anti terrorism policy in Republican administrations.
The administration of Germany, too, was far better organised. It was split into zones and the obedient Germans went along with whatever the zone authorities said.
In the Russian zone they became communists, in the Western zones they became democrats. And quietly they got on with the business of reconstruction.
Mr Bremer is quite honest in his assessment: "We've made a lot of progress but there is a long way to go."
He rejected the charge that there was no plan for peace. "We did have a plan," he said. "The problem is that it's very difficult to execute the plan."
Nor is there is an Iraqi Nelson Mandela waiting to take over.
Saddam destroyed all political leadership. What leadership there is fragmented among the various groups.
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