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Last Updated:  Friday, 28 March, 2003, 14:26 GMT
Q&A: Assessing coalition strategy
With coalition forces pushing towards Baghdad and US troops now arriving in northern Iraq, the BBC's defence correspondent Jonathan Marcus, at Central Command Headquarters in Qatar, answers questions about the war so far and the pitfalls ahead.

What's the Northern Offensive strategy?

The coalition are now trying to put into place something that will replace plan A.

Plan A was to move the 4th Infantry Division from Turkey, south towards Baghdad, to prevent the Iraqi Republican Guard divisions from advancing south towards the main American push heading north from Kuwait.

But the Turkish wouldn't let American forces use their soil for this purpose. So plan B is to parachute these forces into the north of the country, in order to grab the Iraqis' attention and prevent them from moving south of Baghdad.

What are the new reinforcements for, and where will they be deployed?

A lot of reinforcements that are on the way were already on standby before the war began. If things do continue to move slowly the Americans will be very glad of the 4th Infantry Division's help, which is entering Iraq via Kuwait.

They could be ready for action by the 3rd week of April. There are also a lot more American forces in the region than we've been led to believe, in countries which will remain unnamed.

And the Americans have seized a lot of airfields during their advance, enabling them to fly in even more troops. But we don't know where they'll be deployed.

Coalition commanders are very careful not to advertise their plans, in order to keep the Iraqis in the dark.

How can the coalition deal with guerrilla tactics?

The Americans have had to divert units to deal with key areas of guerrilla activity, such as Nasiriya, with its important bridges over the Euphrates.

They're now using more firepower as they advance, sweeping buildings and anywhere that might provide cover for guerrilla ambushes, in order to deal with the problem before it arises.

Could the war take months?

It may take longer than many people imagined. Public opinion had imagined that the Iraqis would simply fall over and give in when the attack began.

While the Americans have underestimated the scale of the resistance, the British have been more pragmatic, talking about a medium-term, rather than short-term victory.

American forces are now chiming in with this view as well. It seems likely that when the Iraqi regime begins to crumble, it will crumble very quickly, but we've no idea when that will begin to happen.

Is fatigue now a major factor?

It's been a huge factor for the advancing American units which moved an extraordinary distance in the first days of the campaign.

Guerrilla warfare hasn't helped, but strangely the bad weather which has slowed them down has also had a positive effect.

It's given units a chance to rest, get re-supplied, and reconfigure themselves, before they face one of the most important engagements of the campaign, between the American 3rd Division, and the Medina Division of the Republican Guard.

Has the "shock and awe" tactic failed?

It is not clear that this was ever an appropriate phrase, as the use of force by the coalition has been more graduated and measured than the name would suggest.

They're not bombing everything that might possibly be a military target, and are pursuing a very different gameplan to the first Gulf conflict.

This strategy has run into some problems, but it's real test will come when the American 3rd Division clashes with the Republican Guard, a battle that could be only a matter of days away.


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