| You are in: Middle East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Thursday, 23 January, 2003, 15:02 GMT Analysis: Palestinian factions' truce talks ![]() Radical groups have grown in popularity
The Palestinian faction talks in Cairo are the latest in a series of attempts by Egypt and European diplomats to broker a ceasefire and forge unity among the disparate groups. From the Palestinian side, the driving force behind these talks is Mahmoud Abbas, a senior Palestinian Authority official. The initial plan was to help strengthen the Israeli left ahead of forthcoming elections. It may be too late for that now, but Mr Abbas also wants the factions to unify their ranks before a possible war with Iraq. He and many other Palestinians believe Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon could use the war as a pretext to invade Gaza and destroy the rest of the authority, already teetering on the brink of collapse after two years of conflict. Mr Abbas argues that the Palestinians would have to stop all military activity in order to secure international backing to prevent such a scenario. Opposition Mr Abbas faces two blocks of opposition. The first is from within Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's own Fatah movement. Its political leaders support a halt to suicide bombings in Israel, but will not give up the right to armed resistance inside the Occupied Territories. They also say they will not be able to control their militias if Israel continues its military activity in Palestinian areas. Secondly, there is opposition from the Islamic groups, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Neither want to give up suicide bombings, ostensibly because they are a powerful weapon against Israel, but practically because they are popular among Palestinians and have been helping these groups become more powerful. Year-long moratorium Is there any room for compromise? The Egyptians are proposing a year long Palestinian moratorium on violence. Most observers agree that is impossible unless Israel also holds back its army, and they agree it is unlikely that Mr Sharon would do so. In the interests of unity, the factions might accept a temporary halt to suicide bombings. But such an agreement would probably be vague and conditional - maybe some kind of promise to focus on military targets in exchange for an end to Israeli incursions, house demolitions and assassinations. A big question at the Cairo negotiations will probably be what Hamas gets out of this. Simply by participating in the talks, the group has received diplomatic recognition from Europe and Arab countries. It may use this to argue for a greater role in the Palestinian leadership. And where does Mr Arafat stand? He has made it clear that he is against suicide bombings, but sources close to him say he does not believe a ceasefire is possible under the circumstances. But in his usual style, he is standing back and watching to see where the process goes. |
Internet links: The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites Top Middle East stories now: Links to more Middle East stories are at the foot of the page. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Links to more Middle East stories |
![]() | ||
| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- To BBC Sport>> | To BBC Weather>> | To BBC World Service>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- © MMIII | News Sources | Privacy |